Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 21

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadi Municipal de Can Misses (Ibiza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ibiza		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4.1
	1.87	3.1	3.7
	1.88	2.8	3.75
	1.96	3.1	4.29
	1.9	3.14	4.13	Watch
	1.88	3.25	4.13
	1.88	2.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.11)	3.03 ↑ (2.77)	3.98 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ibiza
47.7%

Draw
29.7%

Mérida AD
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

31.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

33.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ibiza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ibiza's performance.

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Ibiza - Mérida AD Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ibiza will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Mérida AD will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juan Ramirez R. (G) 11. Astals D. 17. Medina U. 4. Monjonell E. 3. Molina G. 5. Jimenez J. 10. Gallar A. 6. Alvarez J. 16. Olabe R. 12. Dauda M. 18. Lopez J.	1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 22. Athuman I. 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 3. Jimenez N. 11. Doncel C. 15. Prevedini M. 28. del Cerro S. 17. Ganet P. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J.
Substitutes
24. Albert J. 13. Belman (G) 25. Chekotun A. (G) 14. Domenech M. 23. Escassi A. 21. Eugeni 9. Ferrer P. 20. Indias I. 7. Quique 22. Zarzana A.	7. Alvaro J. 12. Beer J. 4. Bonaque M. 23. Busi 18. Falcon E. 26. Macia I. (G) 29. Piski J. 16. Sanchez E. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Astals D. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Astals D. ⚽, Gallar A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', del Cerro S. 🟨,
54', Gallar A. (Pen),
54', 🟨,
55', Athuman I. ↓, Falcon E. ↑,
55', Jimenez N. ↓, Busi ↑,
55', del Cerro S. ↓, Alvaro J. ↑,
58', Alvarez J. 🟨,
70', Astals D. ↓, Zarzana A. ↑,
70', Alvarez J. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
71', 3 - 0, Dauda M. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
77', Ganet P. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
77', Beltran L. ↓, Bonaque M. ↑,
78', Jimenez J. ↓, Albert J. ↑,
78', Dauda M. ↓, Quique ↑,
82', Lopez J. ↓, Gori ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 11 and 6).

Ibiza is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mérida AD is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ibiza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ibiza is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ibiza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 0.7:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Ibiza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Last Results with these Odds

Ibiza - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 41.85%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ibiza
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.01.25	Alcoyano - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Ibiza - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
22.12.24	Alcorcón - Ibiza	1:2 ✺
15.12.24	Ibiza - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Ceuta - Ibiza	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWLL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.01.25	Mérida AD - Marbella	4:2 ✺
10.01.25	Sevilla B - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
21.12.24	Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Yeclano Deportivo - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Mérida AD - Hércules	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.09.24	Mérida AD - Ibiza	1:0
25.02.24	Ibiza - Mérida AD	0:0
05.11.23	Mérida AD - Ibiza	1:2

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