Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 20

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Mérida AD		Marbella

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.2
	2.05	3	3.25
	2.08	2.85	3.1
	2.16	3.08	3.34	Watch
	2.14	3.14	3.37
	2.08	2.85	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.93)	3.02 ↓ (3.45)	3.23 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
42.6%

Draw
29.6%

Marbella
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

26.6%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

25.8%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Mérida AD - Marbella Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vicente D. (G) 19. Pipe 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 4. Bonaque M. 3. Jimenez N. 17. Ganet P. 28. del Cerro S. 11. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J.	13. Martin D. (G) 14. Olguin M. 20. Bernardo 10. Punal A. 3. Fornes G. 11. Soto A. 5. Acosta L. 6. Duarte J. 19. Ohemeng E. 7. Callejon J. (C) 16. Hanza D.
Substitutes
7. Alvaro J. 22. Athuman I. 23. Busi 18. Falcon E. 1. Juanpa (G) 26. Macia I. (G) 29. Piski J. 15. Prevedini M.	8. Alamo J. 17. Alayeto I. 2. Alvarez J. 12. Assi J. 4. Carrasco J. 15. Diori Y. 9. Du Yuezheng 24. Edwards R. 1. Lejarraga A. (G) 21. Munoz P. 23. Pena M. 25. Solsky D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Eslava J. ⚽,
34', Duarte J. 🟨,
45', Bonaque M. 🟨,
45+1', Beneit R. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Callejon J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
48', Punal A. 🟨,
53', Beltran L. (Pen),
54', 2 - 1, Beltran L. ⚽,
55', Bernardo 🟨,
57', Hanza D. 🟨,
63', Jimenez N. ↓, Busi ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Hanza D. ⚽,
70', Ganet P. ↓, Athuman I. ↑,
70', Bonaque M. ↓, Prevedini M. ↑,
71', Punal A. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
73', Bernardo 🟨,
75', 3 - 2, Eslava J. ⚽,
76', Martin D. 🟨,
78', Duarte J. ↓, Du Yuezheng ↑,
80', Beneit R. ↓, Alvaro J. ↑,
80', Beltran L. ↓, Falcon E. ↑,
82', Olguin M. 🟥,
84', Athuman I. 🟨,
88', Soto A. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
88', Ohemeng E. ↓, Alayeto I. ↑,
88', Acosta L. ↓, Diori Y. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Eslava J. ⚽,
90+3', Eslava J. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Mérida AD could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mérida AD will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:12 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Mérida AD won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.01.25	Sevilla B - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
21.12.24	Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Yeclano Deportivo - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Mérida AD - Hércules	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTWL
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.01.25	Marbella - Alcorcón	3:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.25	Marbella - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.24	Recreativo Huelva - Marbella	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Marbella - Betis B	2:2 ✺
08.12.24	Villarreal B - Marbella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.09.24	Marbella - Mérida AD	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
02.02.20	Mérida AD - Marbella	0:0
15.09.19	Marbella - Mérida AD	3:2
07.01.18	Mérida AD - Marbella	2:2
19.08.17	Marbella - Mérida AD	2:0
19.02.17	Mérida AD - Marbella	3:0
02.10.16	Marbella - Mérida AD	2:1

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