Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Castrumfavara		ACR Messina

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.92	2.45
	2.54	3.12	2.56
	2.58	3.14	2.58
	2.75	2.8	2.45
	2.61	3.23	2.66
	3.14	3.2	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (3.46)	3.07 ↑ (2.74)	2.48 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castrumfavara
33.4%

Draw
29.8%

ACR Messina
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

33.1%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

29.2%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castrumfavara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castrumfavara's performance.

ACR Messina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Castrumfavara - ACR Messina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Toure I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+5', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).

Castrumfavara is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

ACR Messina's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

ACR Messina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castrumfavara won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Castrumfavara	6	1	1	4	5:7	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
22.02.26	Ragusa - Castrumfavara	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Castrumfavara - Savoia	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Gelbison Cilento - Castrumfavara	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Castrumfavara - Nissa	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Milazzo - Castrumfavara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- ACR Messina
Italian Serie D - Group I
22.02.26	ACR Messina - Sambiase	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Reggina - ACR Messina	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	ACR Messina - Enna	2:5 ✺
25.01.26	ACR Messina - Acireale	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Gela - ACR Messina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
26.10.25	ACR Messina - Castrumfavara	2:1

Castrumfavara - ACR Messina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide