Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Ragusa		Castrumfavara

	1	X	2
	2.07	3.14	3.44	Watch
	2.08	3.08	3.38
	2.08	3.05	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (2.05)	3.09 ↑ (3)	3.42 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ragusa
43.9%

Draw
29.5%

Castrumfavara
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.1%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ragusa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ragusa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ragusa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castrumfavara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ragusa - Castrumfavara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ragusa (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ragusa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Callegari E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90+2', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are on a losing streak in recent matches.

Ragusa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ragusa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Castrumfavara	6	1	1	4	5:7	-2	4
16	USD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4:9	-5	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ragusa Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group I
15.02.26	Gelbison Cilento - Ragusa	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Ragusa - Reggina	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Nissa - Ragusa	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sambiase - Ragusa	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Ragusa - Gela	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
15.02.26	Castrumfavara - Savoia	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Gelbison Cilento - Castrumfavara	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Castrumfavara - Nissa	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Milazzo - Castrumfavara	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Castrumfavara - Sambiase	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
19.10.25	Castrumfavara - Ragusa	2:0
17.04.25	Castrumfavara - Ragusa	1:1

Ragusa - Castrumfavara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide