Match Info

2. SNL - Round 26

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday


	Ilirija Ljubljana		Nafta

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.47
	5.3	4.15	1.47	Watch
	5.3	4.2	1.46
	5.45	4.49	1.51	Watch
	5	3.8	1.44
	5.24	4.21	1.49	Watch
	4	3.55	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.04 ↑ (4.29)	4.07 ↑ (3.78)	1.5 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilirija Ljubljana
17.9%

Draw
22.1%

Nafta
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

24.1%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

24.5%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilirija Ljubljana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Nafta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nafta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilirija Ljubljana than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nafta than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nafta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Prva liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilirija won 2.

Ilirija has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nafta is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Nafta is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Ilirija won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:24. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilirija won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ilirija	9	4	1	4	15:10	5	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilirija Ljubljana
Slovenian 2 SNL
24.04.26	Krka - Ilirija Ljubljana	1:4 ✺
17.04.26	Ilirija Ljubljana - Bistrica	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Rudar Velenje - Ilirija Ljubljana	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Slovan Ljubljana - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Ilirija Ljubljana - Tabor Sežana	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTLL
- NK Nafta 1903
Slovenian 2 SNL
25.04.26	Nafta - Bistrica	2:1 ✺
17.04.26	Tabor Sežana - Nafta	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Nafta - Jadran Dekani	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Jesenice - Nafta	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Nafta - Krško	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 2 SNL
19.10.25	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:1
18.11.23	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	2:1
09.11.23	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:0
02.03.23	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	2:0
19.08.22	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	3:0
18.04.22	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	1:0
01.10.21	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:1

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