Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Bamber Bridge

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.25	2.58
	2.36	3.45	2.65
	2.38	3.61	2.68	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.63
	2.33	3.28	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)	3.34 ↓ (3.59)	2.64 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
38.5%

Draw
27.1%

Bamber Bridge
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

25.8%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

25.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Bamber Bridge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bamber Bridge than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Ilkeston - Bamber Bridge Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Odunaiya D. ⚽,
71', 2 - 0, Walker J. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 9).

Recent performances by Ilkeston have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bamber is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bamber may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16:31	-15	9
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Last Results with these Odds

Ilkeston - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	Rushall Olympic - Ilkeston	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Ilkeston - Warrington Town	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Prescot Cables - Ilkeston	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Ashton United - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ilkeston - Stockton Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWTL
- Bamber Bridge
English NPL Premier Division
06.04.26	Bamber Bridge - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Leek Town - Bamber Bridge	3:2 ✺
28.03.26	Bamber Bridge - Cleethorpes Town	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Bamber Bridge	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bamber Bridge - Morpeth Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
23.08.25	Bamber Bridge - Ilkeston	2:0
26.04.25	Bamber Bridge - Ilkeston	1:2
24.08.24	Ilkeston - Bamber Bridge	2:1
16.04.24	Bamber Bridge - Ilkeston	1:4
30.09.23	Ilkeston - Bamber Bridge	1:0

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