Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 33

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Hebburn Town

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.2	2.4
	2.73	3.39	2.35
	2.69	3.59	2.39	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.45
	2.38	3.42	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.76)	3.34 ↓ (3.62)	2.42 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
35.3%

Draw
27.2%

Hebburn Town
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

25.6%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

24.6%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Hebburn Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hebburn Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Ilkeston - Hebburn Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Odunaiya D. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Martin O. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
68', 2 - 1, Odunaiya D. ⚽,
75', 3 - 1, Fox R. ⚽,
78', 3 - 2, Martin G. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

Ilkeston has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hebburn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Hebburn has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ilkeston won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Last Results with these Odds

Hebburn Town - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.72%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	Warrington Rylands - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Ilkeston - Guiseley	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Workington - Ilkeston	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Ilkeston - Leek Town	1:3 ✺
24.01.26	Cleethorpes Town - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLLT
- Hebburn Town
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	Leek Town - Hebburn Town	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hebburn Town - United of Manchester	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Hednesford Town - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Warrington Rylands - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Workington - Hebburn Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.11.25	Hebburn Town - Ilkeston	5:0
05.04.25	Hebburn Town - Ilkeston	1:2
30.11.24	Ilkeston - Hebburn Town	2:1

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