Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 29

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.65	3.45
	1.82	3.82	3.62
	1.84	4.03	3.58	Watch
	1.83	3.4	3.4
	1.86	4.34	3.31
	1.83	3.75	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.06)	3.83 ↓ (3.94)	3.49 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
49.9%

Draw
23.9%

Leek Town
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

23.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

23.3%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Leek Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leek Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Ilkeston - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Meadowcroft C. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Heath C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, Parker S. ⚽,
58', 1 - 3, Heath C. ⚽,
62', Daniel C. 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Leek may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ilkeston might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ilkeston won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
24.01.26	Cleethorpes Town - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	3:0 ✺
13.01.26	Whitby Town - Ilkeston	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Hyde United - Ilkeston	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWLWT
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
24.01.26	Hednesford Town - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
20.01.26	Leek Town - Hyde United	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Leek Town - Cleethorpes Town	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Leek Town - United of Manchester	0:1 ✺
01.01.26	Warrington Town - Leek Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:2
04.01.25	Ilkeston - Leek Town	0:2
21.09.24	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:3

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