The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ilkeston 25%
Draw 24.7%
Guiseley 50.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.6%
28.4%
39.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.9%
27.8%
40%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilkeston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ilkeston's form might have worsened.
Guiseley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guiseley's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilkeston, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guiseley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ilkeston - Guiseley Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Berchil A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
71', 0 - 2, Thewlis J. ⚽,
Preview
A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 21st in the Relegation and 5th in the Promotion - NPL Premier Division Playoffs - Quarter - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 3.
Ilkeston has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Guiseley has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Guiseley is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Our forecast points to a victory for Guiseley in today's match, at odds of 1.82.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Ilkeston has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 10:8 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Ilkeston against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1:1.7 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Guiseley
11
7
1
3
24:11
13
22
21
Ilkeston
12
2
1
9
7:26
-19
7
Last Results with these Odds
Guiseley - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.08%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.
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