Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Workington

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	3.9
	1.77	3.88	3.79
	1.33	5.25	7.53	Watch
	1.76	3.72	4.34
	1.69	3.75	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.66)	4.07 ↑ (3.62)	4.78 ↑ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
57.1%

Draw
23.2%

Workington
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

25%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

24.4%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Ilkeston - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
1', 1 - 0, Kirby-Moore H. ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, Youmbi D. ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, Symington D. ⚽,
39', 2 - 2, Ellis L. M. ⚽,
41', 3 - 2, Youmbi D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Youmbi D. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 2.

Recent form of Ilkeston has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Workington has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Workington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ilkeston is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:2 ✺
16.09.25	Ilkeston - Cleethorpes Town	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
09.09.25	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ilkeston - Whitby Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Workington - Prescot Cables	1:1 ✺
16.09.25	Hebburn Town - Workington	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Workington - United of Manchester	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Bamber Bridge - Workington	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Lancaster City - Workington	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
08.02.25	Ilkeston - Workington	1:0
12.10.24	Workington - Ilkeston	2:1
23.12.23	Workington - Ilkeston	4:1
19.08.23	Ilkeston - Workington	6:1
19.04.17	Workington - Ilkeston	2:0
19.11.16	Ilkeston - Workington	0:2
12.03.16	Ilkeston - Workington	0:3

Upcoming Matches