Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Referee: Sundberg J. (Den)


	Ilves		Differdange 03

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	5	Watch
	1.66	3.75	4.40
	1.58	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.61	3.85	5.59
	1.63	4.38	4.52	Watch
	1.57	3.45	5.5
	1.7	3.67	5.25	Watch
	1.64	3.8	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.49)	3.79 ↓ (3.86)	5.01 ↓ (6.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
57%

Draw
24.5%

Differdange 03
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

23.9%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

23.1%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Differdange 03 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Differdange 03 than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	15%	10%

Ilves - Differdange 03 Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Differdange 03 will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.38) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Krkalic F. (G) 13. Wallius K. 24. Kumpu V. 16. Miettunen T. 3. Rale M. 14. Popovitch A. 7. Veteli J. 6. Raap Y. 19. Bamba G. 9. Hytonen T. 30. Kanga J. (C)	1. Felipe (G) 4. D'Anzico K. 77. Leandro Borges 14. Bedouret J. 25. Franzoni G. (C) 8. Bruninho 16. Grilo M. 21. Rauch L. 24. Rivas E. 31. Thill S. 95. Gustavo Vintecinco
Substitutes
15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 17. Baranov S. 28. Kilo J. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 22. Multala O. 4. Pettersson O. 10. Riski Ro. 25. Suvanne S. 20. Tiitinen O. 5. Vaisanen S. 1. Virtanen O. (G)	30. Da Silva Correia R. (G) 42. Mabuza M. 88. Melhor S. 26. Mendes F. 7. Mfoumou B. 13. Nabais I. 20. Pinto R. 17. Soares Delgado M. 99. Wolf H. (G)
Coaches
Speranza C.	Resende P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Bamba G. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Thill S. ⚽, Rivas E. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Bamba G. ↓, Pettersson O. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Raap Y. ⚽, Kanga J. (A),
60', Veteli J. ↓, Kilo J. ↑,
60', Miettunen T. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Kanga J. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Raap Y. 🟥,
69', Gustavo Vintecinco 🟥,
69', Bedouret J. 🟥,
69', Bruninho 🟨,
75', 3 - 1, Riski Ro. ⚽, Kanga J. (A),
75', Bruninho ↓, Mfoumou B. ↑,
75', Rivas E. ↓, Melhor S. ↑,
78', Thill S. ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
78', Franzoni G. ↓, Mabuza M. ↑,
78', Hytonen T. ↓, Multala O. ↑,
81', Kumpu V. 🟨,
85', Kanga J. ↓, Vaisanen S. ↑,
86', Resende P. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Ilves is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Differdange 03 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ilves has had a series of away games.

Recently, Differdange 03 has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilves won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.07.26	Differdange 03 - Ilves	0:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	FF Jaro - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Ilves - SJK	2:2 ✺
23.06.26	KuPS Kuopio - Ilves	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLTL
- Differdange 03
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.07.26	Differdange 03 - Ilves	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Differdange 03 - F91 Dudelange	2:0 ✺
19.06.26	Differdange 03 - UNA Strassen	1:1 ✺
Luxembourg Cup
29.05.26	Differdange 03 - Victoria Rosport	4:1 ✺
Luxembourg National Division
23.05.26	Atert Bissen - Differdange 03	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.07.26	Differdange 03 - Ilves	0:0

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