Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - Second stage - Round 30

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
World	Fanatiz


	Imbabura		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	1.8	4	4.1	Watch
	1.73	3.6	3.7
	1.79	3.85	3.85	Watch
	1.78	4.18	3.93
	1.79	4.01	3.89	Watch
	1.75	3.75	3.75
	1.79	3.9	3.92	Watch
	1.79	3.85	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.21)	3.89 ↑ (3.42)	3.87 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Imbabura
52.2%

Draw
23.8%

SD Aucas
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

26.8%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Imbabura has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Imbabura's performance.

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and SD Aucas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Imbabura than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Imbabura that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that SD Aucas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	4.5%	4.5%

Imbabura - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Imbabura will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Aucas will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Imbabura: 78.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valero M. (G) 4. Medina E. A. 2. Coronel G. 14. Lecanda T. 10. Espinoza T. 8. Caicedo R. (C) 19. Pepinos O. 22. Mendoza E. 29. Pita J. 99. Luna Tobar C. 23. Klimowicz L.	24. Resendez E. (G) 8. Mina A. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 18. Gonzalez J. 15. Mina J. 28. Olaya Campos M. V. 25. Jaramilo R. 22. Cano L. 10. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 14. Briones R. 37. Zambrano C.
Substitutes
34. Alcivar J. 6. Benitez J. 11. Burbano D. 5. Cevallos G. 13. Chala M. 15. Chavez R. 90. Minda P. (G) 7. Pantoja L. 9. Paz F. 24. Sanchez S. 25. Yar J.	11. Batalla H. 13. Caicedo E. 19. Callejo F. 31. Carabali B. 12. Castro B. (G) 26. Conforme W. 30. Espinosa D. S. 5. Guzman P. 4. Mina A. 23. Mohor J. 34. Quinonez R. 21. Velasco N.
Coaches
Rodriguez G.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Olaya Campos M. V. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Zambrano C. ⚽, Mina J. (A),
45+2', Pita J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Medina E. A. ↓, Chavez R. ↑,
46', Pita J. ↓, Pantoja L. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Cano L. ⚽, Carcelen Carabali M. A. (A),
61', Caicedo R. ↓, Cevallos G. ↑,
61', Mendoza E. ↓, Paz F. ↑,
62', Cevallos G. 🟨,
64', 1 - 2, Pantoja L. ⚽, Espinoza T. (A),
68', Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
69', Briones R. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
73', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Burbano D. ↑,
76', Zambrano C. ↓, Callejo F. ↑,
77', Mina A. 🟨,
81', Olaya Campos M. V. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
88', Mina J. 🟨,
90+1', Resendez E. 🟨,
90+5', Pepinos O. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 13).

Imbabura has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Aucas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Imbabura will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Imbabura won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Imbabura SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.11.24	Emelec - Imbabura	2:2 ✺
11.11.24	Imbabura - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
02.11.24	Libertad Loja - Imbabura	3:1 ✺
28.10.24	Imbabura - Técnico Universitario	0:6 ✺
19.10.24	Independiente del Valle - Imbabura	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLLL
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.11.24	SD Aucas - Delfín	2:0 ✺
09.11.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
02.11.24	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
26.10.24	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.06.24	SD Aucas - Imbabura	2:2

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