Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Delfín

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.6	7	Watch
	1.5	3.7	5.75
	1.48	3.8	6.5
	1.53	3.85	7.55
	1.5	4.01	6.74	Watch
	1.5	3.4	6
	1.53	3.76	6.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.61)	3.73 ↑ (3.54)	6.61 ↑ (5.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
61.4%

Draw
24.7%

Delfín
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

26%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

24.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Delfín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

SD Aucas - Delfín Predictions

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 29. Arroyo L. 21. Guzman P. 6. Spina A. L. 18. Mena A. 33. Porozo S.	21. Heras B. (C) 33. Cabeza E. 32. Bedoya A. 6. Burdisso M. 14. Zuniga E. 30. Valverde J. 17. Rubio E. 18. Morocho J. 78. Ushina K. 29. Ratotti F. 9. Ayunta F.
Substitutes
11. Bolanos R. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 99. Japa E. 91. Luna D. 55. Olaya V. 10. Preciado E. 5. Serpa T. 89. Sosa A. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.	22. Cardenas J. (G) 40. Castillo Saa J. L. 16. Castro L. 19. Cavallaro J. 34. Heredia G. 77. Hernandez B. 5. Medina O. 20. Molano I. 8. Molinas I. A. 50. Ozaeta T. 99. Tenorio L. 27. Yepez E.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Zubeldia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Heras B. 🟨,
25', Morocho J. ↓, Castro L. ↑,
34', Morales S. 🟨,
39', Arroyo L. 🟨,
45+6', Zuniga E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Morales S. ↓, Preciado E. ↑,
57', Zova A. 🟨,
61', Porozo S. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
63', Ratotti F. ↓, Cavallaro J. ↑,
75', Piedra H. 🟨,
78', 1 - 0, Burdisso M. (Own goal),
78', Zuniga E. ↓, Castillo Saa J. L. ↑,
78', Ushina K. ↓, Heredia G. ↑,
82', Arroyo L. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
82', Mena A. ↓, Japa E. ↑,
90+3', Cabeza E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 4.

Aucas is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Delfín's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Aucas is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Aucas will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:8. (average 2.5:0.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Deportivo Macará - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
23.03.26	SD Aucas - Orense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TWWWW
- Delfín SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	Delfín - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Orense - Delfín	0:0 ✺
10.04.26	Delfín - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Leones del Norte - Delfín	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.12.25	Delfín - SD Aucas	0:1
10.11.25	SD Aucas - Delfín	8:0
26.07.25	SD Aucas - Delfín	2:1
05.04.25	Delfín - SD Aucas	1:1
24.11.24	SD Aucas - Delfín	2:0
25.05.24	Delfín - SD Aucas	2:0
25.11.23	SD Aucas - Delfín	0:0

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