The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Libertad Loja 21.4%
Draw 27.5%
SD Aucas 51.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.4%
28.9%
42.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.3%
27.8%
44.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Loja's form might have worsened.
SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Loja, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
33.3%
66.7%
Libertad Loja - SD Aucas Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (G) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 36. Garcia A. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 63. Valencia C. 8. Castro S. 33. Chere A. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 23. Guisamano J. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J.
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 10. Preciado E. 21. Guzman P. 6. Spina A. L. 18. Mena A. 33. Porozo S.
Substitutes
11. Batalla H. 13. Batioja A. 70. Branda V. 27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 16. Cifuentes J. 49. Coronel D. 19. Corozo B. 66. Estacio J. (G) 25. Lucas M. 22. Mina J. (G) 29. Zambrano R.
11. Bolanos R. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 99. Japa E. 55. Olaya V. 89. Sosa A. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.
Coaches
Leon J.
Araujo N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Chere A. ⚽, Castro S. (A),
35', Caicedo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Porozo S. ⚽, Preciado E. (A),
67', 1 - 2, Quinonez R. ⚽, Porozo S. (A),
71', 2 - 2, Guisamano J. ⚽, Cortez Casierra G. J. (A),
72', Castro S. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
72', Quinonez R. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
72', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
73', Tapiero S. 🟨,
75', 3 - 2, Cortez Casierra G. J. ⚽,
77', Cortez Casierra G. J. 🟨,
86', Bolanos R. 🟨,
90+1', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
90+1', Chere A. ↓, Lucas M. ↑,
90+8', Guisamano J. ↓, Zambrano R. ↑,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 2.
Libertad has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Aucas is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Aucas could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
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Cabezas D. (G) 
Morales S. 
Japa E. 
Tapiero S. 
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