Match Info

Liga Pro - Championship Group - Round 4

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	16:30	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	16:30	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.25	4.00
	1.82	3.25	4	Watch
	1.9	3.41	4.37
	1.86	3.41	4.28	Watch
	1.86	3.3	4.2
	1.86	3.36	4.28	Watch
	1.84	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.04)	3.34 ↑ (3.22)	4.17 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
50.2%

Draw
27.6%

Barcelona Guayaquil
22.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.8%

29%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

30%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 4. Burdisso M. 2. Morales S. 31. Carabali B. 6. Spina A. L. 10. Preciado E. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 29. Arroyo L.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 33. Baez J. (C) 4. Vallecilla G. 27. Vargas W. 32. Lugo M. 50. Garcia J. 26. Castillo B. 8. Diaz S. 51. Wila J. 9. Benedetto D.
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 63. Garcia A. 16. Gustavino L. 9. Monti R. 5. Serpa T. 57. Vera M. 17. Zambrano C.	13. Angulo J. L. (G) 16. Cano L. 10. Diaz D. 80. Gomez J. 35. Intriago J. 23. Martinez T. 20. Medina C. 7. Mendoza E. 15. Perlaza J. 14. Rangel A. 11. Rodriguez T. 21. Villalba H.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Trobbiani P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Benedetto D. ⚽, Castillo B. (A),
23', Vallecilla G. 🟨,
29', Castillo B. 🟨,
29', Carabali B. 🟨,
40', Quinonez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Burdisso M. ↓, Gustavino L. ↑,
59', Garcia J. ↓, Intriago J. ↑,
59', Castillo B. ↓, Cano L. ↑,
60', Carabali B. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
60', Arroyo L. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
68', Diaz S. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
68', Benedetto D. ↓, Rodriguez T. ↑,
70', Mena A. ↓, Monti R. ↑,
70', Quinonez R. 🟨,
75', Wila J. ↓, Mendoza E. ↑,
78', Guzman P. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Cano L. ⚽,
86', Vera M. 🟨,
90+4', Lugo M. 🟨,
90+5', 0 - 3, Diaz D. ⚽,
90+8', 0 - 4, Cano L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Aucas (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Barcelona have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Barcelona may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Aucas is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Aucas has recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:23 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aucas against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 13:6 goals (averaging 1.4:0.7 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aucas	34	14	9	11	36:37	-1	51
6	Barcelona SC	33	12	12	9	38:28	10	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.10.26	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Manta - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLTT
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.10.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	LDU Quito - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Delfín	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.09.26	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1
16.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	3:0
Club Friendly
13.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.09.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:1
01.06.25	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:0
02.11.24	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1
12.05.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:1

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