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Current Win Probability
SD Aucas 55.1%
Draw 26.2%
Barcelona Guayaquil 18.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.4%
28.7%
27.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.1%
28.2%
27.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SD Aucas's performance.
Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona Guayaquil might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-11%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SD Aucas that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barcelona Guayaquil could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 14. Tapiero S. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 10. Preciado E. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A.
13. Angulo J. L. (G) 27. Vargas W. 33. Baez J. (C) 4. Vallecilla G. 15. Perlaza J. 32. Lugo M. 35. Intriago J. 16. Cano L. 23. Martinez T. 51. Wila J. 11. Rodriguez T.
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 29. Arroyo L. 11. Bolanos R. 12. Cabezas J. (G) 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 9. Monti R. 30. Oyola B. 5. Serpa T. 57. Vera M. 17. Zambrano C.
9. Benedetto D. 26. Castillo B. 22. Cevallos J. (G) 10. Diaz D. 8. Diaz S. 50. Garcia J. 17. Gaspar D. 7. Mendoza E. 25. Perlaza R. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 14. Rangel A. 77. Vernaza Y.
Coaches
Araujo N.
Trobbiani P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
45+7', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Martinez T. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
46', Rodriguez T. ↓, Benedetto D. ↑,
59', Intriago J. 🟨,
64', Intriago J. ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,
64', Cano L. ↓, Mendoza E. ↑,
71', Piedra H. 🟨,
73', Benedetto D. 🟨,
76', Perlaza J. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
82', Preciado E. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
88', Mena A. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
90+2', Guzman P. ↓, Serpa T. ↑,
90+8', Zova A. 🟨,
90+10', Arroyo L. 🟨,
90+11', 1 - 1, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Barcelona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Aucas might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Usa
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Piedra H. (C) 
Morales S. 
Tapiero S. 
Baez J. (C) 
Rodriguez T. 
Trobbiani P. 
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