Match Info

ASIA: AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - ROUND 3

Date: 25 October 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Incheon United		Shandong Taishan

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	4	5.25	Watch
	1.6	4	5	Watch
	1.61	4.34	5.5
	1.61	4.35	5.06
	1.55	3.9	5
	1.61	4.1	5.1	Watch
	1.61	4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.94)	4.1 ↑ (3.47)	5.1 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
58.7%

Draw
22.9%

Shandong Taishan
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

26.5%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

26%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Incheon United's performance.

Shandong Taishan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shandong Taishan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Incheon United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shandong Taishan than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shandong Taishan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.3%	3.6%	7.1%

Incheon United - Shandong Taishan Predictions

Users Predictions: Incheon United will win (25 of 28 users predict this - 89.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.84% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 3. Kim Yeon-Soo 55. Kwon Han-Jin 4. Oh Ban-Suk (C) 17. Kim Jun-Yub 10. Hernandes R. d. S. 6. Moon Ji-Hwan 40. Mpoku P. 14. Jeong Dong-Yeon 11. Gerso 9. Mugosa S.	14. Wang Dalei (G) 4. Jadson 6. Wang Tong 27. Shi Ke 11. Liu Yang 22. LI Yuanyi 37. Ji Xiang 38. Xie Wenneng 10. Moises 29. Chen Pu 25. Fellaini M. (C)
Substitutes
99. Cheon Seong-Hoon 37. Hong Si-Hoo 13. Kang Yun-Koo 27. Kim Bo-Sub 50. Kim Dae-Joong 7. Kim Do-Hyuk 47. Kim Dong-Min 44. Kim Geon-Hui 25. Kim Min-Seog 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 28. Min Kyeong-Hyeon 77. Park Seung-Ho	9. Cryzan 32. Fernandinho 18. Han Rongze (G) 35. Huang Zhengyu 24. Hu Jinghang 20. Liao Lisheng 21. Liu Binbin 39. Song Long 19. Sun Guowen 13. Zhang Chi 31. Zhao Jianfei 5. Zheng Zheng
Coaches
Jo Sung-Hwan	Choi Kang-Hee

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match Incheon is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
20.10.23	Pohang Steelers - Incheon United	1:1 ✺
08.10.23	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.10.23	Incheon United - Kaya	4:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
30.09.23	Incheon United - Suwon Bluewings	2:0 ✺
24.09.23	Gangwon - Incheon United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TTWWT
- Shandong Taishan
Chinese Super League
20.10.23	Changchun Yatai - Shandong Taishan	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.10.23	Shandong Taishan - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
29.09.23	Shandong Taishan - Wuhan Three Towns	2:1 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
26.09.23	Dalian Pro - Shandong Taishan	0:2 ✺
Chinese Super League
23.09.23	Dalian Pro - Shandong Taishan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWWT

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