Match Info

K League 1 - Round 29

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
Switzerland	LAOLA1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Ulsan HD		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.10	Watch
	2.15	3.40	3.20	Watch
	2.18	3.15	2.90
	2.28	3.45	3.39
	2.12	3.45	3.32	Watch
	2.20	3.35	3.35
	2.22	3.38	3.28	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.18)	3.34 ↑ (3.15)	3.21 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
42.7%

Draw
28.1%

Incheon United
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

28.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.1%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Ulsan HD - Incheon United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Incheon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ulsan HD will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min 4. Seo Myung-Guan 15. Jung Seung-Hyun (C) 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 6. Bojanic D. 55. Oude Kotte T. 27. Pedrinho 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 11. Erick Farias	1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 28. Kim Yeon-Soo 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 11. Gerso 15. Seo Jae-Min 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 70. Leandro Ribeiro 72. Lee Chung-Yong 9. Mugosa S.
Substitutes
72. Baek In-Woo 33. Jang Si-Young 17. Kang Sang-Woo 19. Kim Young-Gwon 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 16. Park Woo-jin 38. Park Yong-Woo 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 66. Trojak M.	13. Choi Seung-gu 99. Ferrier M. 23. Jeong Chi-In 17. Kim Seong-Min 30. Kim Young-whan 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 3. Lee Sang-Gi 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 6. Mun Ji-Hwan
Coaches
Kim Hyun-seok	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Sim Sang-Min ↓, Jang Si-Young ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Jung Seung-Hyun ⚽, Lee Dong-Gyeong (A),
56', 2 - 0, Lee Dong-Gyeong ⚽, Pedrinho (A),
62', Leandro Ribeiro ↓, Ferrier M. ↑,
62', Gerso ↓, Lee Dong-Ryul ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Mugosa S. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Erick Farias ↓, Lee Gyu-Seong ↑,
75', Pedrinho ↓, Kang Sang-Woo ↑,
86', Bojanic D. ↓, Park Yong-Woo ↑,
86', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Trojak M. ↑,
87', Seo Jae-Min ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,
87', Kim Yeon-Soo ↓, Jeong Chi-In ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ulsan could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 2.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	30	14	5	11	45:40	5	47
8	Incheon	30	10	9	11	36:33	3	39

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 40.7%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
08.09.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1 ✺
26.08.26	Daejeon Citizen - Ulsan HD	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Ulsan HD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWLL
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
08.09.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	FC Seoul - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Incheon United - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:1 ✺
26.08.26	Anyang - Incheon United	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
21.07.26	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:2
11.04.26	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:2
South Korean Cup
14.05.25	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	3:0
South Korean K-League 1
22.09.24	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	0:0
South Korean Cup
17.07.24	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:0
South Korean K-League 1
29.05.24	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:1
17.03.24	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	3:3

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