Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2
Australia	11:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	20:30	ESPN, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 1
Ecuador	19:30	DAZN, ESPN
Germany	02:30	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	03:30	ERT Sports 2
Israel	03:30	Sport 2
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Mexico	18:30	Disney+
Netherlands	02:30	ESPN
New Zealand	13:30	beIN Connect
Paraguay	21:30	Tigo Sports
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	21:30	DAZN, Disney+, DSports 310
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	20:30	DAZN, Disney+, ESPN
International	00:30	OneFootball TV


	Boca Juniors		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.00	4.75
	2.12	2.82	3.95	Watch
	2.2	2.99	4.34
	2.2	2.96	3.94	Watch
	2.13	2.95	4.05
	2.1	3.03	4.08	Watch
	2.17	2.95	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.86)	2.96 ↓ (3.23)	4.08 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
44.7%

Draw
32%

Vasco da Gama
23.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.9%

29.4%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

28%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boca Juniors's form might have worsened.

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boca Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Boca Juniors - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montero A. (G) 17. Lozano L. 2. Di Lollo L. 42. Herrera F. 3. Blanco L. (C) 25. Ascacibar S. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 18. Delgado M. 19. Flores L. 30. Valencia E. 7. Carlos Palacios	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 5. Sosa S. 28. Adson 22. Lescano A. 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 11. Gomez A. 19. Bruno Duarte
Substitutes
11. Angel Romero 6. Battaglia R. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 32. Costa A. 4. Figal J. 9. Gimenez M. 24. Gorosito D. 16. Miguel Merentiel 26. Pellegrino M. 53. Ruiz J. 22. Villa S.	20. Brenner 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 55. Gabriel Pereira 18. Hinestroza M. 8. Jair 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Arruabarrena R.	Emanuel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Delgado M. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Adson ⚽, Gomez A. (A),
44', Adson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Sosa S. 🟨,
59', Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↓, Villa S. ↑,
63', Gomez A. 🟨,
64', Gomez A. 🟨,
67', Carlos Palacios ↓, Miguel Merentiel ↑,
68', Adson ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
78', Bruno Duarte ↓, Brenner ↑,
78', Sosa S. ↓, Gabriel Pereira ↑,
82', Lescano A. ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
82', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
86', Ascacibar S. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Boca Juniors is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vasco is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Vasco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Boca Juniors has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Boca Juniors is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Boca Juniors: 48.83%

Last Results with these Odds

Boca Juniors - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.94%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.81 are the expected chance of winning is 19.7%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.10.26	Instituto Córdoba - Boca Juniors	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.09.26	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.26	San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	São Paulo - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWWT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
10.10.26	Vasco da Gama - Remo	0:0 ✺
07.10.26	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWWWW

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