Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Echavarria P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
China	K-Ball
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	ESPN South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Deportivo Riestra

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.4	7.5	Watch
	1.58	3.6	6.5
	1.58	3.6	6.5	Watch
	1.63	3.66	7.23
	1.6	3.57	6.92	Watch
	1.67	3.4	6
	1.58	3.38	7.77	Watch
	1.58	3.6	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.82)	3.53 ↑ (3.2)	6.87 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
59.3%

Draw
26.9%

Deportivo Riestra
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

29%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

28.1%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.

Deportivo Riestra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Riestra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Riestra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Independiente - Deportivo Riestra Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Deportivo Riestra will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 5. Loyola F. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 77. Angulo A. 8. Galdames P. 23. Marcone I. 10. Cabral L. 14. Millan L. 9. Avalos G. 27. Tarzia D.	1. Arce I. (G) 15. Sansotre N. 24. Mino F. 22. Paz C. 13. Gallo R. 5. Ramirez P. 8. Celiz M. (C) 27. Goitia J. 35. Sanchez B. 7. Alonso A. 20. Diaz A.
Substitutes
1. Blazquez J. (G) 6. Freire N. 34. Gimenez M. 16. Hidalgo S. 11. Mancuello F. 22. Martinez B. 21. Martinez D. 32. Paredes F. 18. Puch M. 19. Roman P. 3. Sporle A. 4. Vera F.	32. Benegas N. 36. Bracamonte M. 10. Bravo G. 3. Caro Nicolas 11. Fernandez G. 18. Guille B. 12. Manganelli N. (G) 40. Obredor G. 16. Ortiz S. 23. Ramirez M. 37. Sanabria M. 28. Sayavedra R.
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Benitez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Sanchez B. 🟨,
39', Paz C. 🟨,
42', Galdames P. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
45+1', Mino F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Avalos G. ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
56', Tarzia D. ↓, Roman P. ↑,
64', Sanchez B. ↓, Guille B. ↑,
64', Diaz A. ↓, Benegas N. ↑,
68', Alonso A. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
77', Millan L. ↓, Mancuello F. ↑,
79', Gallo R. 🟨,
81', Cabral L. 🟥,
84', Sanabria M. 🟨,
90', Gallo R. ↓, Sayavedra R. ↑,
90+6', Celiz M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Independiente is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Independiente is a favorite.

There will not play in Independiente: Montiel S. (Inactive) Paredes F. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Deportivo Riestra: Monje P. (Inactive) Randazzo J. (Inactive) Tovo E. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Independiente won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.04.25	Independiente - San Martín de San Juan	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Independiente - Boston River	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Lanús - Independiente	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Independiente	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWTL
- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.04.25	Deportivo Riestra - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Instituto Córdoba - Deportivo Riestra	3:0 ✺
07.04.25	Deportivo Riestra - Platense	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Deportivo Riestra - River Plate	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.10.24	Independiente - Deportivo Riestra	3:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.03.24	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	1:0

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