Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, TNT Sports
Austria	Laola1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 4
Germany	Laola1
Italy	Sportitalia Solo Calcio
Portugal	Sport TV6
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Lanús		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.01	3	4.33	Watch
	2.15	2.95	3.75
	2.08	3	4.1	Watch
	2.12	3.05	4.41
	2.13	3.06	3.91	Watch
	2.07	3	4.3
	2.07	3.03	4.38	Watch
	2.02	3	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.39)	3.01 ↑ (2.83)	4.16 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
45.6%

Draw
31.5%

Independiente
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

32.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	38.9%	11.1%

Lanús - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). Independiente will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 35. De Jesus R. 6. Marcich S. 30. Cardozo A. 5. Pena Biafore F. 11. Salvio E. 23. Carrera R. 25. Aquino D. 20. Wlk A.	33. Rey R. (G) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 35. Arrayago J. 22. Zabala F. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 7. Montiel S. 14. Millan L. 24. Palais J. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
38. Acosta B. 77. Besozzi L. 13. Canale J. 39. Laplace T. 40. Lopez T. 3. Morgantini N. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M. 19. Valois Y. 8. Watson F. N.	19. Abaldo M. 10. Cabral L. 21. Closter F. 20. Cruz F. 28. Gutierrez M. 25. Junco N. 32. Martinez D. 39. Martino R. 77. Mele S. (G) 8. Meza M. 34. Tempone F. 40. Velardez J.
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Millan L. ⚽, Montiel S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 0 - 2, Millan L. ⚽,
50', 1 - 2, Wlk A. ⚽, Carrera R. (A),
61', Perez Curci M. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
61', Millan L. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
64', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
64', Wlk A. ↓, Valois Y. ↑,
69', Carrera R. 🟨,
77', Pena Biafore F. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
77', Montiel S. ↓, Abaldo M. ↑,
77', Palais J. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
85', Guidara T. ↓, Morgantini N. ↑,
85', Aquino D. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
87', Marcone I. 🟨,
87', Avalos G. 🟨,
89', Acosta B. 🟨,
90+1', Avalos G. ↓, Cruz F. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 3, Gutierrez M. ⚽, Abaldo M. (A),
90+5', Rey R. 🟨,
90+6', Carrera R. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lanús will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lanús: Canale J. (Muscle Injury) Loaiza R. (Knee Injury) Marcelino Moreno (Muscle Injury) Medina A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Godoy L. (Inactive) Valdez S. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:15. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lanús won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.89%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Independiente - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.31%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.08.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Lanús	0:3 ✺
06.08.26	Unión Santa Fe - Lanús	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Lanús - Instituto Córdoba	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.07.26	Cienciano - Lanús	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.07.26	Lanús - San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLW
- CA Independiente
Copa Argentina
12.08.26	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.08.26	Independiente - Platense	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0 ✺
30.07.26	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Independiente	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0
12.10.25	Independiente - Lanús	0:2
06.04.25	Lanús - Independiente	1:1
18.10.24	Lanús - Independiente	0:2
27.05.23	Independiente - Lanús	1:1
13.08.22	Lanús - Independiente	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.04.22	Lanús - Independiente	1:0

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