Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Nacional Asuncion		2 de Mayo

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	5	Watch
	1.62	3.40	4.80
	1.65	3.35	4.9	Watch
	1.68	3.65	5.77
	1.74	3.42	5.08	Watch
	1.63	3.55	5.4
	1.66	3.54	5.38	Watch
	1.64	3.3	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.97)	3.45 ↑ (3.1)	5.14 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
55.5%

Draw
26.6%

2 de Mayo
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

29.6%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Asuncion's performance.

2 de Mayo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and 2 de Mayo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 2 de Mayo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (C) 23. Espinola C. 22. Melgarejo R. 5. Benitez G. 29. Vargas S. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 18. Valdez I. 8. Jara F. 13. Meza L. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 9. Benitez H. A.	1. Rossi N. (G) 23. Espinola A. 21. Sosa P. (C) 6. Ramirez Perdesen C. G. 19. Castro C. 16. Gomez M. 22. Portillo Avalos T. G. 24. Romero O. 30. Farina A. 27. Moya M. 18. Silvero F.
Substitutes
11. Almeida M. 20. Arguello R. 7. Bailone I. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 19. Gonzales L. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 36. Pelozo F. 27. Prieto R. 32. Pumpido F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F.	26. Aguayo A. 8. Aguilera A. D. 25. Cervera T. 11. Coronel U. 20. Diaz E. 2. Gomez R. 40. Gonzalez M. 32. Ramirez M. (G) 31. Riquelme H. 5. Saiz C. 9. Sanguina J. 3. Villalba A.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Ledesma E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Valdez I. ⚽, Benitez H. A. (A),
15', Castro C. 🟨,
20', Colman Escobar D. J. 🟨,
22', 2 - 0, Valdez I. ⚽, Benitez H. A. (A),
44', Valdez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Silvero F. ↓, Sanguina J. ↑,
46', Moya M. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Meza L. ⚽,
64', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Gaona Lugo O. ↑,
64', Valdez I. ↓, Prieto R. ↑,
70', Portillo Avalos T. G. ↓, Riquelme H. ↑,
70', Romero O. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
71', Meza L. 🟨,
76', Meza L. ↓, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↑,
76', Benitez H. A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
78', Farina A. ↓, Cervera T. ↑,
78', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
84', Jara F. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
89', Sanguina J. 🟨,
90+1', Castro C. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 4th and 2nd).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Nacional is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

2 de Mayo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Nacional is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Nacional in today's match, at odds of 1.77.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:9 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:4 goals (averaging 2:0.7 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	2 de Mayo	13	7	4	2	16:13	3	25
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 46.57%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

2 de Mayo - the odds 3.85 are the expected chance of winning is 23.83%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWW
- CS 2 de Mayo
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Sportivo Trinidense - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
25.08.26	2 de Mayo - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
31.01.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	5:1
17.10.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	1:0
02.08.25	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:1
06.04.25	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:0
25.01.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	0:0
16.10.24	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:0

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