Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 September 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Independiente Medellín		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3.1	Watch
	2.45	2.95	3.1
	2.45	2.95	3.1	Watch
	2.5	2.92	3.37
	2.48	2.96	3.24	Watch
	2.38	3	2.9	Watch
	2.47	3.13	3.06	Watch
	2.46	3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.66)	2.99 ↓ (3.05)	3.12 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
38.3%

Draw
31.5%

Lanús
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

30.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

30%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lanús might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lanús could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Independiente Medellín - Lanús Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 23. Torijano F. 13. Londono D. 17. Fory J. 14. Perlaza B. 6. Mosquera J. 15. Alvarado J. 27. Leon Muniz B. 9. Sandoval L.	26. Losada N. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 5. Izquierdoz C. (C) 2. Munoz E. 22. Soler J. C. 15. Loaiza R. 23. Dominguez N. 21. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 32. Carrera R. 9. Bou W.
Substitutes
3. Aja J. 30. Arizala J. 34. Blanco I. (G) 33. Chaverra F. 12. Chunga J. (G) 39. Escorcia L. 8. Garcia M. 26. Graciano C. 5. Lima P. 20. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 70. Valencia K.	7. Acosta L. 1. Aguerre A. (G) 40. Alvarez F. 8. Boggio L. 20. Cabrera B. 24. Caceres J. 18. Diaz L. 28. Ontivero O. 29. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Zielinski R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Fory J. 🟨,
37', Londono D. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Londono D. (Own goal),
45', Acosta L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Londono D. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
46', Alvarado J. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
46', Loaiza R. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Garcia M. ⚽, Fory J. (A),
73', Pena Biafore F. 🟨,
74', Dominguez N. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
83', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Lima P. ↑,
84', Leon Muniz B. 🟨,
86', Carrera R. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
90+3', Torijano F. ↓, Aja J. ↑,
90+4', Marcelino Moreno 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Bou W. (Pen),
1, Chaverra L. (Pen),
2, Izquierdoz C. (Pen),
2, Chaverra F. (Pen),
3, Salvio E. (Pen),
3, Lima P. (Pen),
4, Soler J. C. (Pen),
4, Sandoval L. (Pen),
5, Pena Biafore F. (Pen),
5, Aja J. (Pen),
6, Torres J. (Pen),
6, Fory J. (Pen),
7, Marcelino Moreno (Pen),
7, Mosquera J. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Lanús is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lanús could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
22.09.24	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.09.24	Lanús - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
14.09.24	Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
11.09.24	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
08.09.24	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTTWL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.09.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Lanús	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.09.24	Lanús - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.09.24	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
30.08.24	Sarmiento de Junín - Lanús	0:0 ✺
25.08.24	Lanús - Godoy Cruz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
18.09.24	Lanús - Independiente Medellín	0:0

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