Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Medellín		Junior Barranquilla

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.7
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.64	3.9	5.58
	1.63	4.14	4.83	Watch
	1.65	3.7	4.75
	1.64	4	4.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.93)	3.83 ↑ (3.45)	4.8 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
55.9%

Draw
24.5%

Junior Barranquilla
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

27%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.8%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Medellín's performance.

Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Junior Barranquilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Medellín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Junior will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ichazo S. (G) 33. Londono D. 24. Ortiz J. 2. Chaverra L. 18. Fabra F. 13. Chaverra F. 6. Moreno D. (C) 8. Serna A. 30. Palacios H. 19. Fydriszewski F. 20. Montano J.	1. Silveira M. (G) 3. Herrera E. 24. Pestana J. 33. Monzon L. 26. Suarez Y. 14. Rios J. 7. Rivera H. 5. Rivera D. 88. Castrillon B. 29. Gutierrez T. (C) 9. Paiva G.
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 9. Larrosa E. 16. Loboa H. 17. Mancilla G. 4. Mantilla K. 26. Mena Perea E. 31. Moreno D. 14. Perlaza B.	70. Bacca C. 77. Barrios C. 21. Canchimbo J. 30. Martinez J. (G) 10. Muriel L. 22. Rivas J. 20. Sarmiento J. 19. Socarras D. 6. Villarreal D.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Arias A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Serna A. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Chaverra F. ⚽,
27', Monzon L. ↓, Barrios C. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rivera H. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
46', Castrillon B. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
46', Gutierrez T. ↓, Muriel L. ↑,
64', Moreno D. 🟨,
72', Moreno D. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
72', Palacios H. ↓, Mena Perea E. ↑,
72', Londono D. ↓, Mantilla K. ↑,
74', Ichazo S. 🟨,
77', Montano J. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
78', Chaverra F. 🟨,
80', Pestana J. ↓, Canchimbo J. ↑,
85', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,
89', Sarmiento J. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Junior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ind Medellín is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:6. (average 1.4:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18:22	-4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
15.03.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
28.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Liverpool Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLT
- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Primera A
15.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Atlético Nacional	0:4 ✺
05.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Junior Barranquilla	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
08.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:1
19.11.25	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	1:0
21.09.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:2
11.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
08.06.25	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	0:1
06.04.25	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	1:0
Colombian Copa
02.10.24	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	2:1 penalties

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