Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Matorel L. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportes Tolima		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.8
	1.7	3.45	4.95	Watch
	1.71	3.45	5.82
	1.68	3.39	5.75	Watch
	1.67	3.4	5
	1.67	3.49	5.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.71)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)	5.29 ↑ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
55.4%

Draw
27%

Fortaleza CEIF
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

27.3%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

26.9%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Deportes Tolima (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 5. Mera J. 3. Angulo J. 20. Hernandez J. 32. Guzman S. 80. Rovira B. (C) 7. Gonzalez J. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.	1. Silva M. (G) 4. Marulanda J. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 13. Pernia M. 8. Navarro S. 14. Pico L. (C) 26. Rivas Torres R. D. 10. Velasquez J. 33. Arroyo A. 9. Herrera J.
Substitutes
13. Alvarez E. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 14. Ricardo E. 29. Sanchez N. 11. Valencia J.	17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 15. Cuero S. 7. Martinez J. 5. Medina Obando J. 19. Pulicastro F. 3. Ramirez D. 12. Santander C. (G) 31. Vivas S. 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Balanta J. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Torres Patino J. P. ⚽, Guzman S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Arrieta C. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Sandoval L. (Penalty Awarded),
56', Navarro S. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
56', Velasquez J. ↓, Balanta Carabali K. A. ↑,
58', Rovira B. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
58', Gonzalez J. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
60', Mera J. 🟨,
70', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
76', Marulanda J. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
76', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Pulicastro F. ↑,
81', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Pedrozo D. ↑,
82', Pico L. ↓, Vivas S. ↑,
83', Valencia J. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
16	Fortaleza	13	1	8	4	14:19	-5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
15.03.26	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.03.26	Deportes Tolima - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Táchira	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWLWL
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
15.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF	4:2 ✺
15.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
08.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
18.11.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportes Tolima	0:1
31.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1
15.03.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportes Tolima	1:1
19.07.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportes Tolima	1:1
20.01.24	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	1:2

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