Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 1

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez (Barranquilla)

Referee: Moncada A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Junior Barranquilla		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.18	3.05	3.45	Watch
	2.08	3.24	3.65	Watch
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.18	3.08	3.51	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.24)	3.1 ↑ (2.81)	3.5 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Junior Barranquilla
43.2%

Draw
30.2%

Deportes Tolima
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

32.8%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

31.1%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Junior Barranquilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Junior will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Junior (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silveira M. (G) 34. Guerrero J. 98. Pena J. 33. Monzon L. 26. Suarez Y. 28. Celis G. 22. Rivas J. 18. Perez K. 8. Chara Y. (C) 88. Castrillon B. 29. Gutierrez T.	1. Neto Volpi (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 2. Angulo A. 3. Angulo J. 15. Nieto J. (C) 9. Sandoval L. 7. Gonzalez J. 20. Hernandez J. 6. Trujillo C. 28. Lopez E.
Substitutes
77. Barrios C. 3. Herrera E. 30. Martinez J. (G) 10. Muriel L. 24. Pestana J. 14. Rios J. 20. Sarmiento J. 6. Villarreal D.	17. Arrieta C. 23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 18. Florez K. 11. Lencina G. 27. Martinez M. 31. Moreno Y. 16. Reyes C. 14. Ricardo E. 8. Valencia E.
Coaches
Arias A.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Torres Patino J. P. ⚽, Sandoval L. (A),
20', 0 - 2, Gonzalez J. ⚽, Lopez E. (A),
30', Monzon L. ↓, Pestana J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gutierrez T. ↓, Muriel L. ↑,
46', Chara Y. ↓, Rios J. ↑,
46', Castrillon B. ↓, Barrios C. ↑,
51', Nieto J. 🟨,
55', Pena J. 🟨,
61', Rios J. 🟨,
65', Nieto J. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
65', Gonzalez J. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
67', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,
74', Hernandez J. 🟥,
76', Celis G. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
76', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
80', Muriel L. 🟨,
84', Sandoval L. 🟥,
85', Lopez E. 🟨,
90+4', Lopez E. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Junior won 2.

Junior is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Deportes Tolima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Junior might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Junior won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Junior won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18:22	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Junior Barranquilla - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.11%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Super Cup
15.01.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
04.12.25	Junior Barranquilla - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWWLW
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
16.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
16.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:1
12.12.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	3:0
05.10.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	0:1
19.06.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	2:0
31.05.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	1:1
15.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:0
04.12.24	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	3:2

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