Match Info

Copa Pacena - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Olímpico Patria (Sucre) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bolivia	19:00	Entel Gol 56


	Independiente Petroleros		Aurora

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.60	2.50
	2.35	3.10	2.60	Watch
	2.49	3.65	2.42
	2.28	3.79	2.72	Watch
	2.14	3.4	2.55
	2.47	3.85	2.47	Watch
	2.4	3.65	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.31)	3.58 ↓ (3.65)	2.53 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Petroleros
38.8%

Draw
25.4%

Aurora
35.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.2%

25.4%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

24.9%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Petroleros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Aurora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Petroleros than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Independiente Petroleros - Aurora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vera J. (G) 2. Torres S. 50. Roni Santos 3. Crescencio L. 34. Mendoza G. 26. Sanchez K. 6. Rojas D. 19. Cristaldo G. (C) 93. Willie 99. Jeferson Carioca 91. Alvarez G.	12. Cordano R. (G) 16. Barro L. 22. Velazquez J. 4. Vidaurre I. 21. Ortiz M. 5. Amarilla A. 69. Terrazas A. 14. Sanchez H. 70. Torrico J. 8. Viviani L. 10. Ramallo R. (C)
Substitutes
15. Bejarano J. 7. Cardozo R. 16. Chavez Suarez S. 9. Gean 39. Grass P. 20. Mercado A. 68. Morales D. 40. Morales L. (G) 5. Palma L. 4. Rodriguez L. 28. Soleto W. 14. Urdininea C.	32. Altamirano S. 15. Cordova J. 23. Huayhuata I. 11. Mojica H. 20. Pacheco A. 9. Rangel M. 25. Rios A. 19. Sanchez E. 1. Terrazas J. (G) 7. Vaca H. 28. Vaca O. 90. Velazco M.
Coaches
Grass J.	Diaz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Amarilla A. 🟨,
34', Sanchez H. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Crescencio L. ⚽, Sanchez K. (A),
34', Terrazas A. 🟨,
37', Cristaldo G. ↓, Mercado A. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ortiz M. ↓, Rangel M. ↑,
46', Terrazas A. ↓, Vaca H. ↑,
55', Rojas D. 🟨,
61', 2 - 0, Mercado A. ⚽, Willie (A),
63', 3 - 0, Roni Santos ⚽,
70', Vaca H. ↓, Velazco M. ↑,
70', Sanchez E. ↓, Huayhuata I. ↑,
72', Sanchez K. ↓, Chavez Suarez S. ↑,
72', Alvarez G. ↓, Gean ↑,
73', Mendoza G. 🟨,
77', Rojas D. ↓, Urdininea C. ↑,
78', Jeferson Carioca ↓, Cardozo R. ↑,
81', Vidaurre I. 🟥,
90+3', Barro L. 🟨,
90+4', Barro L. 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 0, Willie (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Petroleros won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Ind Petroleros has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:21 (averaging 1.3:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ind Petroleros against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:9 goals (averaging 1.4:1.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Petroleros - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Petroleros
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.10.26	Blooming - Independiente Petroleros	0:0 ✺
12.10.26	Always Ready - Independiente Petroleros	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
07.10.26	Independiente Petroleros - GVCD San José	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Independiente Petroleros - Bolívar	0:3 ✺
01.10.26	Blooming - Independiente Petroleros	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TLWLW
- Club Aurora
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.10.26	Real Oruro - Aurora	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Aurora - Nacional Potosí	2:2 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
06.10.26	Aurora - ABB	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Real Potosí - Aurora	1:1 ✺
29.09.26	Aurora - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
04.08.26	Independiente Petroleros - Aurora	1:1
03.11.25	Aurora - Independiente Petroleros	2:3
26.05.25	Independiente Petroleros - Aurora	2:4
31.10.24	Aurora - Independiente Petroleros	2:0
21.07.24	Independiente Petroleros - Aurora	2:1
18.04.24	Aurora - Independiente Petroleros	2:4 penalties
15.04.24	Independiente Petroleros - Aurora	0:1

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