Match Info

Division Profesional - Round 16

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Futbol Canal


	Oriente Petrolero		Aurora

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.6	2.6
	1.98	3.65	3.2	Watch
	1.96	3.77	3.29
	1.97	3.73	3.41	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.75
	1.98	3.7	3.26	Watch
	1.96	3.9	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.96)	3.67 ↓ (3.9)	3.15 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oriente Petrolero
45.5%

Draw
25.1%

Aurora
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

23.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

23.4%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriente Petrolero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Aurora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriente Petrolero than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Oriente Petrolero - Aurora Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Oriente Petrolero will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Aurora will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oriente Petrolero: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Oriente Petrolero (votes: 2 - 40%). Aurora (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Aurora (1.80) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25 - Oriente Petrolero (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Oriente Petrolero (votes: 3 - 30%). Aurora (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Chala W. 🟨,
35', Rodriguez D. 🟨,
45+2', Blanco O. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Alvarez G. ↓, Cristaldo J. E. ↑,
46', Salvatierra Flores K. F. ↓, Vaca H. ↑,
48', Sanchez H. 🟨,
51', Sanchez H. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Vaca H. ⚽,
56', Vaca H. 🟨,
64', Alvarez S. 🟨,
69', Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↓, Amaral R. ↑,
69', Chala W. ↓, Berdecio J. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Amaral R. ⚽, Melean A. (A),
78', Centurion R. ↓, Tomianovic M. ↑,
78', Blanco O. ↓, Verdun J. ↑,
78', Ballivian R. ↓, Torrico J. ↑,
84', Vaca O. 🟨,
85', 3 - 0, Cristaldo J. E. (Pen),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oriente Petrolero won 2.

Oriente Petrolero has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aurora has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Aurora has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oriente Petrolero won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Oriente Petrolero won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:3. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oriente Petrolero
Bolivian Division Profesional
29.07.25	Nacional Potosí - Oriente Petrolero	4:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
26.07.25	Independiente Petroleros - Oriente Petrolero	1:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
19.07.25	Bolívar - Oriente Petrolero	1:0 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
16.07.25	Oriente Petrolero - Guabirá	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
13.07.25	Oriente Petrolero - ABB	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWT
- Club Aurora
Bolivian Copa Pacena
30.07.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Aurora	5:2 ✺
25.07.25	ABB - Aurora	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
19.07.25	ABB - Aurora	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
09.07.25	GVCD San José - Aurora	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
05.07.25	Universitario de Vinto - Aurora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
30.03.25	Aurora - Oriente Petrolero	5:1
24.09.24	Oriente Petrolero - Aurora	5:0
12.05.24	Aurora - Oriente Petrolero	3:1
12.11.23	Oriente Petrolero - Aurora	1:0
14.05.23	Aurora - Oriente Petrolero	2:2
05.09.22	Oriente Petrolero - Aurora	2:1
20.04.22	Aurora - Oriente Petrolero	1:1

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