Match Info

COLOMBIA: PRIMERA A - APERTURA - ROUND 14

Date: 31 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Ariza E. (Col)


	Independiente Santa Fe		Patriotas

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.61	3.5	5.25
	1.66	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.63	3.6	6.66
	1.64	3.54	6.66
	1.55	3.5	5.8
	1.64	3.73	5.72	Watch
	1.51	3.75	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 (1.61)	3.62 ↓ (3.9)	5.89 ↑ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
58.2%

Draw
25.9%

Patriotas
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

24.1%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

23.1%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Patriotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente Santa Fe will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 22. Perlaza E. 3. Ortiz M. 14. Torres J. 29. Millan J. 16. Torres D. 32. Hernandez D. 17. Moreno D. 27. Correa J. 13. Chaverra F. 7. Gonzalez J.	32. Valencia J. (G) 15. Roa S. 4. Alarcon A. 5. Rodas M. 25. De Las Salas C. 38. Payares L. 6. Diaz J. 28. Mosquera C. 17. Charris C. 30. Rivas I. 19. Martinez C.
Substitutes
10. Castaneda F. 25. Cuero S. 12. Espitia J. (G) 18. Melendez J. 30. Mosquera D. 26. Ovalle W. 20. Velasquez Y.	8. Castano C. 11. Pena G. 2. Pezzi A. 36. Quinonez D. 1. Roman S. (G) 20. Ruiz D. 34. Torres F.
Coaches
Peirano P.	Rivera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', Chaverra F. 🟨,
10', Payares L. ↓, Castano C. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 0, Gonzalez J. ⚽, Correa J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rivas I. ↓, Pena G. ↑,
46', Mosquera C. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
46', Correa J. ↓, Ovalle W. ↑,
59', De Las Salas C. 🟨,
67', Torres D. 🟨,
74', Moreno D. ↓, Mosquera D. ↑,
79', Martinez C. ↓, Quinonez D. ↑,
80', Castano C. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Torres D. ⚽,
86', Gonzalez J. ↓, Castaneda F. ↑,
87', Chaverra F. ↓, Melendez J. ↑,
90+1', Torres F. 🟨,
90+4', Rodas M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Fe won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Santa Fe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santa Fe is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Santa Fe won 7 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Fe won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
27.03.24	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	3:1 ✺
24.03.24	Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
20.03.24	Boca Juniors de Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.03.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTTW
- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera A
22.03.24	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Deportivo Cali - Patriotas	0:1 ✺
10.03.24	Patriotas - Deportivo Pereira	0:2 ✺
03.03.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
27.02.24	Envigado - Patriotas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.08.22	Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas	2:1
28.02.22	Patriotas - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1
11.10.21	Patriotas - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1
04.02.21	Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas	1:0
Colombian Copa
29.10.20	Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas	1:2
22.10.20	Patriotas - Independiente Santa Fe	1:3
Colombian Primera A
16.02.20	Patriotas - Independiente Santa Fe	0:2

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