The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Independiente Santa Fe 51.9%
Draw 27.9%
Fortaleza CEIF 20.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
56.9%
25.4%
17.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58.1%
24.9%
17.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Santa Fe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Independiente Santa Fe - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Asprilla W. (G) 19. Bustos N. 32. Mafla C. 3. Moreno V. 13. Palacios H. 14. Palacios L. 11. Rodallega H. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 16. Torres D. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 10. Zapata A.
1. Barlasina W. (G) 4. Cabezas E. 2. Copete A. 6. Diaz Y. 5. Medina Obando J. 7. Montano I. 14. Pico L. (C) 19. Pulicastro F. 30. Solis J. 28. Vivas S. 29. Wilke T.
Substitutes
43. Caicedo J. 9. Fagundez F. 17. Lovera M. 1. Mosquera A. (G) 77. Obrian J. 18. Olivera E. 39. Portocarrero C. 25. Rodriguez E. 7. Torres J.
16. Cajares J. 15. Cuero S. 25. Garcia J. 13. Mejia B. 8. Navarro S. 3. Ramirez D. 24. Salas J. 12. Santander C. (G) 10. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Repetto P.
Arias D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Wilke T. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Rodallega H. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Wilke T. ⚽,
43', 🟨,
43', 🟨,
45+1', Moreno V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Palacios L. ⚽, Bustos N. (A),
52', Copete A. ↓, Cajares J. ↑,
56', 2 - 2, Pulicastro F. ⚽,
60', Montano I. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
61', Pulicastro F. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
65', Palacios L. 🟨,
65', Zapata A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
65', Palacios L. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
68', Cuero S. 🟨,
69', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
74', Diaz Y. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
74', Vivas S. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
79', Torres D. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
79', Moreno V. ↓, Olivera E. ↑,
85', Herrera J. 🟨,
88', Obrian J. 🟨,
Penalties (9 - 8)
1, Herrera J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Fagundez F. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Cuero S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Obrian J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Medina Obando J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Bustos N. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ramirez D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Torres J. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Solis J. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Rodallega H. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Salas J. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Scarpeta Silgado I. R. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Wilke T. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Toscano Bassa K. D. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Cajares J. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Rodriguez E. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Pico L. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Palacios H. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 2.
Santa Fe has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by Fortaleza have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Fortaleza may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Santa Fe has faced a series of away games on the road.
Santa Fe carries the favorite tag into this contest.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 15:7 (averaging 1.9:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Santa Fe against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 9:2 goals (averaging 2.3:0.5 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.91%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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Asprilla W. (G) 
Bustos N. 
Wilke T. 
Fagundez F. 
