Match Info

COLOMBIA: PRIMERA A - APERTURA - ROUND 13

Date: 22 March 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)


	Patriotas		Junior Barranquilla

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.75	2.87	2.55
	2.8	2.95	2.75	Watch
	2.86	2.85	2.82
	2.86	2.82	2.82
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.8	3.02	2.63	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (3.95)	2.9 ↓ (3.18)	2.67 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patriotas
33%

Draw
32.1%

Junior Barranquilla
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

29%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

28.3%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Patriotas's performance.

Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Junior Barranquilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Patriotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Junior Barranquilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	64.3%	21.4%

Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Patriotas will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Junior will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Valencia J. (G) 15. Roa S. 27. Sarria E. 4. Alarcon A. 29. Ayala J. 30. Rivas I. 6. Diaz J. 18. Payares L. 19. Martinez C. 10. Charris C. 25. De Las Salas C.	30. Martinez J. (G) 3. Herrera E. 18. Olivera E. 28. Pena J. 11. Mosquera Moreno Y. 24. Cantillo V. 14. Martinez Yepez H. E. 8. Chara Y. 70. Bacca C. 20. Caicedo D. 80. Hinojosa R.
Substitutes
9. Cordoba S. 11. Pena G. 2. Pezzi A. 36. Quinonez D. 5. Rodas M. 1. Roman S. (G) 20. Ruiz D.	31. Acosta Almeida J. L. (G) 29. Albornoz O. 7. Berrio L. 25. Ceballos B. 99. Enamorado J. 27. Johan Bocanegra 17. Perez M.
Coaches
Rivera H.	Reyes A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Martinez C. ⚽, Sarria E. (A),
45+1', Martinez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ayala J. ↓, Rodas M. ↑,
57', Sarria E. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
60', Hinojosa R. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
70', Mosquera Moreno Y. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
73', Martinez C. ↓, Cordoba S. ↑,
73', Rivas I. ↓, Pezzi A. ↑,
85', Caicedo D. ↓, Albornoz O. ↑,
85', Cantillo V. ↓, Johan Bocanegra ↑,
85', Chara Y. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
90+1', Charris C. ↓, Quinonez D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 13-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Patriotas won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera A
17.03.24	Deportivo Cali - Patriotas	0:1 ✺
10.03.24	Patriotas - Deportivo Pereira	0:2 ✺
03.03.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
27.02.24	Envigado - Patriotas	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Patriotas - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLLLW
- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Primera A
15.03.24	Junior Barranquilla - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
08.03.24	Rionegro Águilas - Junior Barranquilla	0:2 ✺
02.03.24	Junior Barranquilla - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
25.02.24	Deportivo Pereira - Junior Barranquilla	3:3 ✺
21.02.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
07.07.22	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
22.01.22	Junior Barranquilla - Patriotas	3:1
01.10.21	Junior Barranquilla - Patriotas	1:0
27.02.21	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
04.10.20	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	0:0
21.07.19	Patriotas - Junior Barranquilla	2:0
30.01.19	Junior Barranquilla - Patriotas	3:1

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