Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Millonarios		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.5	4	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.7	Watch
	1.92	3.55	4.12
	1.94	3.51	3.79	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.75
	1.89	3.48	3.97	Watch
	1.97	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.89)	3.43 ↓ (3.47)	3.85 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Millonarios
48.6%

Draw
27.2%

Independiente Santa Fe
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.9%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

27.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Independiente Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Santa Fe will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Novoa D. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 26. Llinas A. 17. Arias J. 4. Elizalde E. 22. Valencia S. 19. Garcia M. 18. Urena R. 14. Silva D. (C) 27. Contreras R. 23. Castro L.	12. Asprilla W. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 16. Torres D. 7. Torres J. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H. (C) 14. Palacios L.
Substitutes
20. Banguero D. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 1. De Amores G. (G) 9. Falcao R. 35. Mosquera S. 7. Quintero D. 3. Samuel M. 28. Vega S. 30. Viveros S.	24. Angulo J. 19. Bustos N. 9. Fagundez F. 2. Juan Quintero 22. Mosquera E. 33. Nemocon C. (G) 40. Palacios M. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 10. Zapata A.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Repetto P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Arias J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mafla C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Valencia S. ⚽, Silva D. (A),
64', Palacios L. ↓, Fagundez F. ↑,
64', Torres J. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
65', Llinas A. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
72', Sarabia C. ↓, Samuel M. ↑,
73', Fernandez O. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
75', Silva D. 🟨,
76', 1 - 1, Rodallega H. ⚽, Fagundez F. (A),
79', Contreras R. 🟥,
80', Moreno V. 🟨,
81', Silva D. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
81', Castro L. ↓, Falcao R. ↑,
89', Toscano Bassa K. D. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
90', Samuel M. 🟨,
90+1', Valencia S. 🟨,
90+5', Urena R. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Santa Fe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Millonarios is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:20. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19:12	7	22
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19:12	7	22

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.37%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 3.93 are the expected chance of winning is 23.74%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	OHiggins - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.04.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
30.03.26	Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Once Caldas - Millonarios	1:4 ✺
17.03.26	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLTWW
- Independiente Santa Fe
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
04.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
01.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
25.10.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	0:1
06.09.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	0:0
19.06.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2
01.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	0:1
26.03.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0
22.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	3:2
05.12.24	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1

Upcoming Matches