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Current Win Probability
Independiente de la Chorrera 34.7%
Draw 30.9%
Sporting San Miguelito 34.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.6%
29.4%
28%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.7%
30.2%
27.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente de la Chorrera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente de la Chorrera's form might have worsened.
Sporting San Miguelito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting San Miguelito's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente de la Chorrera than the current prediction. (+9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente de la Chorrera, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting San Miguelito than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting San Miguelito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Independiente de la Chorrera - Sporting San Miguelito Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez A. (G) 13. Negrete G. 15. Giron J. 27. Morales A. 74. Reyes R. 9. Tejada L. 18. Giron E. 20. McKenzie A. 46. Obando J. 43. Gomez V. 28. Ruiz M.
1. Espinosa S. (G) 14. Hall J. 22. Ramirez S. 31. Alba O. 8. Cordoba A. 20. Bethancourt A. 23. Hurtado H. 40. Ruiz J. I. 55. Benitez R. 2. Caicedo J. 11. Zuniga L.
Substitutes
7. Altamirano A. 25. Contreras D. 4. Fori D. 36. Guerra H. 83. Leon G. (G) 19. Petit D. 11. Valverde A. 22. Waterman B.
13. Azcarate M. 18. Betancourt J. 26. Brown E. (G) 53. Castillo A. 29. Castillo J. 30. Castillo O. 6. Heraldez L. 16. Mosquera E. 25. Munoz J. 27. Tello Valor R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Obando J. ⚽,
25', Gomez V. 🟨,
32', Caicedo J. ↓, Tello Valor R. ↑,
32', Zuniga L. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Negrete G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Benitez R. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
46', Zuniga L. ↓, Betancourt J. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Ruiz M. ⚽,
57', Ruiz J. I. ↓, Castillo O. ↑,
57', Cordoba A. ↓, Castillo A. ↑,
63', Gomez V. ↓, Altamirano A. ↑,
64', Obando J. ↓, Contreras D. ↑,
67', 3 - 1, Bethancourt A. ⚽,
68', 4 - 1, Altamirano A. ⚽,
73', 4 - 2, Alba O. ⚽,
75', Ruiz M. ↓, Valverde A. ↑,
76', Betancourt J. 🟨,
83', Tejada L. 🟨,
88', McKenzie A. ↓, Guerra H. ↑,
88', Tejada L. ↓, Petit D. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 3, Bethancourt A. ⚽,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2.
Independiente is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
San Miguelito has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
San Miguelito may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Independiente has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:17 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Independiente against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 14:6 goals (averaging 1.6:0.7 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Independiente de la Chorrera - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.65%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.
Sporting San Miguelito - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 27.99%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Mexico
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Rodriguez A. (G) 
Ruiz J. I. 
Caicedo J. 
Leon G. (G) 
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