Match Info

GERMANY: 3. Liga - Round 12

Date: 25 October 2024, Friday

Location: Audi Sportpark (Ingolstadt)

Referee: Hasmann J. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 7
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Germany	DFB Play, Magenta Sport, tv.dfb.de
Montenegro	Sportklub 7
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 7
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Ingolstadt		Borussia Dortmund II

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	3.7
	1.83	3.9	3.7
	1.83	4	3.6	Watch
	1.87	4.3	3.79
	1.77	4.12	3.89	Watch
	1.8	3.75	3.5
	1.78	3.94	3.75	Watch
	1.83	4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.72)	3.98 ↓ (4.04)	3.69 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
51.3%

Draw
23.4%

Borussia Dortmund II
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

23.1%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

22.2%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Borussia Dortmund II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ingolstadt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund II than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Ingolstadt - Borussia Dortmund II Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ingolstadt will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Borussia Dortmund II will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ingolstadt: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Funk M. (G) 22. Costly M. 19. Cvjetinovic M. 32. Lorenz S. (C) 43. Keidel F. 29. Kopacz D. 17. Besuschkow M. 14. Plath M. 20. Deichmann Y. 11. Gronning S. 38. Zeitler D.	35. Lotka M. (G) 29. Jessen N. 15. Huning B. 27. Lelle D. 2. Mogultay B. 8. Roggow F. 6. Azhil A. (C) 14. Eberwein M. 26. Drakas B. 10. Elongo-Yombo R. 5. Foti A.
Substitutes
7. Borkowski D. 3. Decker E. 10. Dittgen M. 18. Duhring M. N. 5. Gul E. 8. Kanuric B. 4. Lechner L. 41. Simoni S. (G)	11. Butler J. 45. Diallo O. 16. Garcia Posadas L. 43. Krevsun D. 31. Ostrzinski S. (G) 21. Paschke F.
Coaches
Wittmann S.	Zimmermann J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
18', Gronning S. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Elongo-Yombo R. ⚽, Eberwein M. (A),
21', Roggow F. 🟨,
25', 0 - 2, Drakas B. ⚽, Eberwein M. (A),
28', 1 - 2, Zeitler D. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
42', Besuschkow M. 🟨,
45', 2 - 2, Deichmann Y. ⚽, Zeitler D. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
59', Lelle D. 🟨,
60', Drakas B. ↓, Paschke F. ↑,
65', Keidel F. ↓, Duhring M. N. ↑,
65', Zeitler D. ↓, Borkowski D. ↑,
74', 3 - 2, Deichmann Y. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
75', Deichmann Y. ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
78', 4 - 2, Besuschkow M. ⚽,
81', Paschke F. 🟨,
82', Foti A. ↓, Diallo O. ↑,
82', Roggow F. ↓, Krevsun D. ↑,
85', 4 - 3, Eberwein M. ⚽, Mogultay B. (A),
90', 5 - 3, Kopacz D. ⚽, Borkowski D. (A),
90+1', Plath M. ↓, Dittgen M. ↑,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 and 11).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Ingolstadt is a favorite.

There will not play in Ingolstadt: Hoppe M. (Knee Injury) Malone R. (Knee Injury) Seiffert M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Borussia Dortmund II: Aning P. (Injury) Besong P. (Knee Injury) Irorere F. (Foot Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ingolstadt won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:4 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ingolstadt won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
22.10.24	Viktoria Köln - Ingolstadt	4:4 ✺
19.10.24	Ingolstadt - Verl	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Alemannia Aachen - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Ingolstadt - Hansa Rostock	2:1 ✺
24.09.24	Sandhausen - Ingolstadt	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTTWL
- Borussia Dortmund II
German 3 Bundesliga
22.10.24	Borussia Dortmund II - Waldhof Mannheim	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Viktoria Köln - Borussia Dortmund II	3:5 ✺
04.10.24	Borussia Dortmund II - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
28.09.24	Borussia Dortmund II - 1860 München	1:2 ✺
25.09.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund II	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
13.04.24	Borussia Dortmund II - Ingolstadt	1:1
04.11.23	Ingolstadt - Borussia Dortmund II	1:1
04.02.23	Ingolstadt - Borussia Dortmund II	1:2
07.08.22	Borussia Dortmund II - Ingolstadt	0:4

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