Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - PROMOTION - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presidente Peron (Cordoba)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)


	Instituto Córdoba		Defensores de Belgrano

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.3	7.5
	1.6	3.3	6
	1.65	3.45	5.2
	1.6	3.25	6
	1.64	3.39	6.92
	1.6	3.2	6
	1.64	3.32	5.5
	1.62	3.3	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.79)	3.31 ↑ (3.12)	6.17 ↑ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Instituto Córdoba
57.1%

Draw
27.9%

Defensores de Belgrano
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

29.6%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

29.4%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Instituto Córdoba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Instituto Córdoba's performance.

Defensores de Belgrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Instituto Córdoba than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Instituto Córdoba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	17.6%	11.8%

Instituto Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Instituto will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Defensores will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Instituto: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Instituto won 1.

Instituto is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Defensores de Belgrano is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Defensores de Belgrano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Instituto is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Instituto won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Instituto won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Instituto Córdoba
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.10.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	0:0 ✺
10.10.22	Instituto Córdoba - Deportivo Madryn	3:1 ✺
03.10.22	Deportivo Morón - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
25.09.22	Instituto Córdoba - Temperley	1:0 ✺
18.09.22	Deportivo Flandria - Instituto Córdoba	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWLWW
- Defensores de Belgrano
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.10.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	0:0 ✺
22.10.22	San Martín de Tucumán - Defensores de Belgrano	0:3 ✺
15.10.22	All Boys - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
09.10.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:2 ✺
02.10.22	Almirante Brown - Defensores de Belgrano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.10.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	0:0
15.05.22	Instituto Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano	2:1
25.07.21	Instituto Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2
13.03.21	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	0:0
17.01.21	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	2:0
28.09.19	Defensores de Belgrano - Instituto Córdoba	1:1
21.09.18	Instituto Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano	4:3

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