Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Inter Milan		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.75	2.45
	2.55	3.6	2.55
	2.72	3.8	2.48	Watch
	2.66	3.74	2.66
	2.73	3.9	2.46	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.5
	2.79	3.84	2.49
	2.72	3.8	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.06)	3.74 ↓ (3.99)	2.51 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inter Milan
36%

Draw
25.7%

Barcelona
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

24.2%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

25%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	25.7%	47.5%

Inter Milan - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 98 users predict this event. Inter will win (votes: 26 - 26.5%). Barcelona will win (votes: 46 - 46.9%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 26.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 37% – 56.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 7 - 21.9%). Barcelona (votes: 15 - 46.9%). Tie (votes: 10 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 9 - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

TQ, OT - Barcelona (votes: 9 - 81.8%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Inter (1.95) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Barcelona (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Inter (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Barcelona (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 52 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 15 - 28.8%). Barcelona (votes: 27 - 51.9%). Tie (votes: 10 - 19.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sommer Y. (G) 31. Bisseck Y. 15. Acerbi F. 95. Bastoni A. 2. Dumfries D. 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 22. Mkhitaryan H. 32. Dimarco F. 10. Martinez L. (C) 9. Thuram M.	25. Szczesny W. (G) 24. Garcia E. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 35. Martin G. 21. de Jong F. (C) 8. Pedri 19. Yamal L. 20. Olmo D. 11. Raphinha 7. Torres F.
Substitutes
8. Arnautovic M. 21. Asllani K. 30. Carlos Augusto 36. Darmian M. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 16. Frattesi D. 13. Martinez J. (G) 56. Re Cecconi G. 99. Taremi M. 59. Zalewski N. 7. Zielinski P.	4. Araujo R. 26. Astralaga A. (G) 15. Christensen A. 45. Darvich N. 44. Farre L. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 6. Gavi 9. Lewandowski R. 16. Lopez F. 13. Pena I. (G) 18. Victor P.
Coaches
Inzaghi S.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Martinez L. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
36', Calhanoglu H. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Calhanoglu H. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
51', Martinez I. 🟨,
54', 2 - 1, Garcia E. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
55', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Olmo D. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
68', Mkhitaryan H. 🟨,
71', Bisseck Y. ↓, Darmian M. ↑,
71', Martinez L. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
76', Martinez I. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
79', Mkhitaryan H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
79', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
83', Olmo D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Raphinha ⚽, Pedri (A),
90+1', Torres F. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 3, Acerbi F. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
90+5', Victor P. 🟨,
90+5', Acerbi F. 🟨,
90+5', Flick H. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Carlos Augusto 🟨,
98', Garcia E. ↓, Fort H. ↑,
99', 4 - 3, Frattesi D. ⚽, Taremi M. (A),
106', Cubarsi P. ↓, Gavi ↑,
106', Pedri ↓, Victor P. ↑,
108', Dumfries D. ↓, de Vrij S. ↑,
118', Bastoni A. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 3-3. 2nd leg./

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1.

Inter is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Barcelona has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Inter: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Pavard B. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Casado M. (Knee Injury) Kounde J. (Muscle Injury) Torre P. (Knee Injury) ter Stegen M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Inter: De Pieri G. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Inter won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
03.05.25	Inter Milan - Verona	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.04.25	Barcelona - Inter Milan	3:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
27.04.25	Inter Milan - Roma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.04.25	Inter Milan - Milan	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Bologna - Inter Milan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTLLL
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.25	Valladolid - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.04.25	Barcelona - Inter Milan	3:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
26.04.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	3:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.04.25	Barcelona - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Barcelona - Celta de Vigo	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
30.04.25	Barcelona - Inter Milan	3:3
12.10.22	Barcelona - Inter Milan	3:3
04.10.22	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:0
10.12.19	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:2
02.10.19	Barcelona - Inter Milan	2:1
06.11.18	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:1
24.10.18	Barcelona - Inter Milan	2:0

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