Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Barcelona		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.2	4.75
	1.63	4.2	5
	1.68	4.25	4.9
	1.68	4.34	5.09
	1.67	4.26	5.06	Watch
	1.62	4	5
	1.69	4.3	5.11
	1.68	4.3	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.7)	4.23 ↓ (4.27)	4.96 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
57.9%

Draw
22.7%

Inter Milan
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

22.5%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Inter Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.6%	13.2%	14.2%

Barcelona - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 75 - 74.3%). Inter will win (votes: 14 - 13.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 65.8% – 82.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Barcelona (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Barcelona (2.25) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

DC - Barcelona (1.23) (votes: 3 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 60%) .

AH +0.5 - Inter (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Barcelona (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barcelona will win (37 of 43 users predict this - 86.05%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 56 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 44 - 78.6%). Inter (votes: 11 - 19.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 35. Martin G. 21. de Jong F. (C) 8. Pedri 20. Olmo D. 19. Yamal L. 7. Torres F. 11. Raphinha	1. Sommer Y. (G) 31. Bisseck Y. 15. Acerbi F. 95. Bastoni A. 2. Dumfries D. 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 22. Mkhitaryan H. 32. Dimarco F. 10. Martinez L. (C) 9. Thuram M.
Substitutes
4. Araujo R. 26. Astralaga A. (G) 15. Christensen A. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 24. Garcia E. 6. Gavi 16. Lopez F. 13. Pena I. (G) 14. Torre P. 18. Victor P.	8. Arnautovic M. 21. Asllani K. 30. Carlos Augusto 36. Darmian M. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 16. Frattesi D. 13. Martinez J. (G) 56. Re Cecconi G. 99. Taremi M. 59. Zalewski N. 7. Zielinski P.
Coaches
Flick H.	Inzaghi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Thuram M. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
21', 0 - 2, Dumfries D. ⚽, Acerbi F. (A),
24', 1 - 2, Yamal L. ⚽,
38', 2 - 2, Torres F. ⚽, Raphinha (A),
42', Kounde J. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Martin G. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
46', Martinez L. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
56', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
59', Calhanoglu H. 🟨,
64', 2 - 3, Dumfries D. ⚽, Calhanoglu H. (A),
65', 3 - 3, Sommer Y. (Own goal), Raphinha (A),
68', Olmo D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
70', Cubarsi P. 🟨,
71', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
81', Dumfries D. ↓, Darmian M. ↑,
81', Thuram M. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
83', Cubarsi P. ↓, Christensen A. ↑,
83', Pedri ↓, Gavi ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 2.

Barcelona is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Inter is in a bad shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 1).

Barcelona could have an advantage in physical - more days for rest in the last days.

Recently, Inter had a set of home games.

In this match, Barcelona is a favorite.

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Casado M. (Knee Injury) Lewandowski R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Inter: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Pavard B. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Barcelona will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 matches, and goals 10:7 (average 1.7:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams, Barcelona won 2 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4 (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
Spanish Copa del Rey
26.04.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	3:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.04.25	Barcelona - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Barcelona - Celta de Vigo	4:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.25	Borussia Dortmund - Barcelona	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.25	Leganés - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
27.04.25	Inter Milan - Roma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.04.25	Inter Milan - Milan	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Bologna - Inter Milan	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.04.25	Inter Milan - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.04.25	Inter Milan - Cagliari	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.10.22	Barcelona - Inter Milan	3:3
04.10.22	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:0
10.12.19	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:2
02.10.19	Barcelona - Inter Milan	2:1
06.11.18	Inter Milan - Barcelona	1:1
24.10.18	Barcelona - Inter Milan	2:0

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