Match Info

BRAZIL: Gaucho - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Goulart R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Internacional RS		Caxias

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.25	12	Watch
	1.24	5.4	9.8	Watch
	1.2	5	8.5
	1.24	5.26	11.09	Watch
	1.22	5	12
	1.26	5.27	12	Watch
	1.24	5.4	9.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)	5.23 ↑ (4.5)	10.74 ↑ (8.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Internacional RS
74%

Draw
17.5%

Caxias
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

20.5%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

19.5%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Internacional RS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Internacional RS's performance.

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Internacional RS - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Anthoni (G) 35. Aguirre B. 26. Bernabei A. 8. Bruno Henrique 7. Carbonero J. 5. Fernando 47. Gustavo Prado 13. Valencia E. 41. Victor Gabriel 4. Vitao (C) 28. Vitinho	32. Victor Golas (G) 3. Alisson 25. Calyson 43. Guilherme Mantuan 11. Iago 21. Kelvyn 4. Lucas Cunha 27. Pedro Cuiaba 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes
Substitutes
12. Ivan (G) 27. Kaique Rocha 45. Lucca 38. Marlinho 23. Nathan 42. Pablo 2. Ramon 49. Ricardo Mathias 3. Rogel A. 16. Ronaldo 44. Victor João 37. Yago	33. Alan 14. Carlos Henrique 44. Douglas 7. Gabriel Lima 5. Lorran 6. Marcelo 31. Matheus Silva (G) 77. Nicholas 8. Paulinho Souza 90. Richard 15. Ronei
Coaches
Roger Machado	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Alisson 🟨,
37', Vitinho 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Tomas Bastos ⚽,
42', Bruno Henrique ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Alisson ↓, Douglas ↑,
53', Douglas 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Valencia E. ⚽,
63', 2 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
67', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Gabriel Lima ↑,
67', Gustavo Prado ↓, Lucca ↑,
74', Calyson ↓, Richard ↑,
74', Iago ↓, Nicholas ↑,
79', 3 - 1, Valencia E. ⚽,
81', Vinicius Guedes ↓, Paulinho Souza ↑,
83', Carbonero J. ↓, Yago ↑,
83', Fernando ↓, Ramon ↑,
83', Valencia E. ↓, Ricardo Mathias ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Internacional won 2.

Internacional in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Caxias is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Caxias could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Internacional is certain favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Internacional won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24:13 (average 1.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Internacional won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:6 (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Internacional RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.25	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Internacional RS - Monsoon	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	São Luiz - Internacional RS	1:3 ✺
08.02.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Internacional RS - Brasil de Pelotas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWTW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Dourados - Caxias	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.25	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Caxias - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Guarany de Bagé - Caxias	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Caxias - São Luiz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.25	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:2
03.02.24	Internacional RS - Caxias	2:0
26.03.23	Internacional RS - Caxias	1:2 penalties
18.03.23	Caxias - Internacional RS	1:1
08.02.23	Internacional RS - Caxias	2:2
12.02.22	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:1
24.03.21	Internacional RS - Caxias	2:0

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