Match Info

Russian Cup - Regions Path - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match TV


	Irkutsk		Chelyabinsk

	1	X	2
	9.13	3.88	1.43	Watch
	7.4	3.7	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.27 ↑ (5.82)	3.79 ↓ (3.81)	1.49 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Irkutsk
11.4%

Draw
24.9%

Chelyabinsk
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.9%

25.8%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

25.6%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irkutsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Irkutsk's form might have worsened.

Chelyabinsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelyabinsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Irkutsk than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Irkutsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelyabinsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Irkutsk - Chelyabinsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Irkutsk will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Chelyabinsk will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Irkutsk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Tsygulev A. (G) 27. Alekseev S. 37. Belyaev E. 11. Lutashev V. 19. Mashnev M. 23. Motovilov F. 28. Naydenov A. 14. Putilov A. 38. Pytlev D. (C) 34. Usov A. 33. Yakovlev I.	1. Zadiraka V. (G) 79. Abdullin R. 33. Agaev A. 23. Emelyanov D. 22. Gapechkin A. 47. Glukhov E. 63. Nikitenkov A. 11. Nosov A. (C) 14. Palkin V. 15. Pushkarev D. 29. Urvantsev M.
Substitutes
1. Chernyavskiy K. (G) 7. Lavrentiev A. 99. Lomash A. 4. Molodnyakov D. 21. Oganichev D. 69. Perevoznikov E. 5. Polorotov A. 71. Vafiev M. (G)	97. Chemasov A. 84. Firsov D. 7. Malyarov N. 72. Novikov O. (G) 13. Tushin A. 92. Yudin D. 9. Zyryanov N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Lutashev V. ⚽,
4', 1 - 1, Nosov A. (Pen),
18', Palkin V. 🟨,
26', Zadiraka V. 🟨,
27', 2 - 1, Yakovlev I. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Glukhov E. ↓, Zyryanov N. ↑,
56', 2 - 2, Urvantsev M. ⚽,
66', Belyaev E. ↓, Lomash A. ↑,
73', Palkin V. ↓, Malyarov N. ↑,
81', Urvantsev M. ↓, Chemasov A. ↑,
86', Agaev A. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 3, Chemasov A. ⚽,

Preview

Irkutsk has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chelyabinsk is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chelyabinsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chelyabinsk is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Irkutsk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
21.09.25	Zenit 2 - Irkutsk	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Irkutsk - Kosmos Dolgoprudny	2:1 ✺
Russian Cup
11.09.25	Irkutsk - KDV Tomsk	3:0 ✺
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
07.09.25	Dynamo Vologda - Irkutsk	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Irkutsk - Chertanovo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLW
- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Rodina Moscow	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
08.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Fakel	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWTT

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