Match Info

FNL - Round 8

Date: 4 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk)

Referee: Matveev S. (Rus)


	Chelyabinsk		Fakel

	1	X	2
	3.77	3.07	2.2
	3.89	3.01	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↑ (3.24)	3.04 ↑ (2.93)	2.14 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelyabinsk
24.7%

Draw
31.1%

Fakel
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

32%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

32.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelyabinsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fakel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fakel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Chelyabinsk - Fakel Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Fakel will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fakel (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Tuseev I. (G) 66. Gudkov Y. 2. Zhirov A. (C) 27. Kochiev K. 5. Gatin B. 70. Levin G. 18. Kertanov K. 77. Samoilov D. 10. Gadzhimuradov R. 88. Eza W. 17. N'Diaye B.	1. Frolkin D. (G) 2. Cherov V. 27. Magkeev S. 44. Zhuravlev Y. 93. Uridia M. 10. Alshin I. 52. Netfullin R. (C) 95. Gaponov I. 8. Bagamaev A. 70. Abdokov N. 19. Pusi B.
Substitutes
79. Abdullin R. 23. Emelyanov D. 22. Gapechkin A. 7. Malyarov N. 63. Nikitenkov A. 11. Nosov A. 72. Novikov O. (G) 14. Palkin V. 15. Pushkarev D. 29. Urvantsev M. 1. Zadiraka V. (G)	77. Bagatelia L. 5. Gabaraev A. 99. Giorgobiani N. 21. Gongadze G. 97. Magomedov B. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M. 20. Yurganov I.
Coaches
Pilipchuk R.	Shalimov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Zhuravlev Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Abdokov N. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
61', Uridia M. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
73', Gatin B. ↓, Pushkarev D. ↑,
73', N'Diaye B. ↓, Gapechkin A. ↑,
80', Gadzhimuradov R. ↓, Nosov A. ↑,
82', Gaponov I. ↓, Gabaraev A. ↑,
82', Bagamaev A. ↓, Simonov K. ↑,
82', Alshin I. ↓, Giorgobiani N. ↑,
90+3', Kertanov K. 🟨,
90+5', 0 - 1, Giorgobiani N. ⚽,
90+7', Giorgobiani N. 🟨,
90+9', Magkeev S. 🟨,
90+10', 1 - 1, Levin G. (Pen),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Recent performances by Chelyabinsk have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fakel is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fakel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
30.08.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Chelyabinsk - Sokol Saratov	3:1 ✺
17.08.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chelyabinsk	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Chelyabinsk - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	KAMAZ - Chelyabinsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLWL
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
31.08.25	Ural - Fakel	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Fakel - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel	0:1 ✺
11.08.25	KAMAZ - Fakel	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Fakel - Sokol Saratov	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWW

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