Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	DAZN Brasil


	Itabaiana		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.45
	2.85	2.8	2.5	Watch
	3.02	2.79	2.67	Watch
	2.8	2.75	2.5
	2.79	2.96	2.42	Watch
	2.85	2.8	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (3.29)	2.82 ↓ (3)	2.51 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
31.8%

Draw
32.1%

Náutico Capibaribe
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

30.3%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

30.6%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabaiana - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (C) 5. Bruno Sena 7. Carlos Coppetti 21. Gabriel Henrique 4. Gabriel Santiago 30. Jackson 22. Kauan 26. Leilson 28. Luis Fernando 14. Nenem 17. Wendel R. N. J.	19. Muriel Becker (G) 28. Auremir 33. Carlinhos 16. Felipe Santana 7. Helio Borges 6. Luiz Paulo 17. Marcos Ytalo 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan 11. Vinicius (C) 22. Wenderson
Substitutes
20. Anderson Paraiba 3. Betao 18. Boca 16. Breno 19. Cabral J. 13. Dudu 23. Elimar 27. Fredson 12. Geaze (G) 9. Joao Vitor 15. Romeo 10. Tarcisio	2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 10. Caio Vitor 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 39. Eduardo 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 13. Indio 40. Joao Maistro 8. Marco Antonio 1. Wellerson R. (G)
Coaches
Ailton Silva	Marquinhos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Vinicius ⚽,
38', Fabian Fernandez Nizio A. R. 🟨,
45+4', Wenderson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Valdeci ↓, Robinho ↑,
46', Bruno Sena ↓, Fabricio Oya ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Wendel R. N. J. ⚽, Carlos Coppetti (A),
60', Felipe Santana ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
67', Carlos Coppetti 🟨,
70', Jackson ↓, Cabral J. ↑,
70', Fabian Fernandez Nizio A. R. ↓, Romeo ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Cabral J. ⚽, Leilson (A),
76', Kauan ↓, Betao ↑,
77', Helio Borges ↓, Caio Vitor ↑,
77', Wenderson ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
80', Marcos Ytalo ↓, Igor Fernandes ↑,
80', Luiz Paulo ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
84', Wendel R. N. J. 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Náutico will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Itabaiana won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1 (average 0:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Itabaiana won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
29.03.25	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
05.03.25	Itabaiana - Sergipe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLWTW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.03.25	Náutico Capibaribe - América RN	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
03.03.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
13.01.18	Náutico Capibaribe - Itabaiana	1:0 penalties
08.01.18	Itabaiana - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0

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