Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA DO NORDESTE - ROUND 3

Date: 14 February 2024, Wednesday


	Itabaiana		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.4
	7	4.2	1.4
	6.8	4.09	1.4
	7.75	4.39	1.4
	7.5	4.2	1.33
	7.75	4.3	1.36	Watch
	7.2	4.2	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.29 ↓ (8.71)	4.24 ↓ (4.65)	1.38 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
12.5%

Draw
21.5%

Sport Recife
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.5%

19.6%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.1%

18.8%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabaiana - Sport Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pellegrini M. (G) 3. Caran G. 14. Douglas Dias 22. Kauan 10. Marcelinho 11. Matheus (C) 15. Matheus Prado 4. Rony Fernandes 19. Schutz 6. Thiago Papel 8. Vitao	22. Caique Franca (G) 12. Alisson Cassiano 8. Dominguez F. 47. Fabio Matheus 6. Felipinho 9. Gustavo Coutinho 39. Italo 40. Luciano Castan (C) 54. Pedro Lima 17. Pedro Vilhena 11. Romarinho
Substitutes
25. Berg 16. Boca 5. Duda 23. Elivelton 17. Jupi 7. Leo Carvalho 21. Lucas Formiga 12. Montanhas (G) 20. Nenem 13. Pedro Silva 18. Tiago Souza 24. William (G)	20. Arthur Caike 7. Fabinho 94. Felipe 19. Lucas Lima 27. Pablo Dyego 13. Renzo 28. Rosales R. 10. Ruiz A. 21. Thiago Couto (G) 99. Ze Roberto

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5).

Recent matches Itabaiana is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sport Recife is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sport Recife could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sport Recife is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
11.02.24	América RN - Itabaiana	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.02.24	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
03.02.24	Itabaiana - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
31.01.24	Atlético Gloriense - Itabaiana	2:3 ✺
28.01.24	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLWL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.02.24	Sport Recife - Treze	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
06.02.24	Sport Recife - Central SC	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.24	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.02.24	Flamengo Arcoverde - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
29.01.24	Sport Recife - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW

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