Match Info

Mineiro - Round 8

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes (Nova Lima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Itabirito		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	8.8	4.65	1.32	Watch
	8.44	4.68	1.35
	10.18	4.87	1.28	Watch
	8	4	1.33
	8.25	4.62	1.37	Watch
	9	4.75	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.78 ↑ (8.32)	4.6 ↑ (4.53)	1.33 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabirito
10.5%

Draw
20.1%

Atlético Mineiro
69.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11%

20.2%

68.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

19.3%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabirito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Itabirito aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Vinicius Dias (G) 17. Gleisinho 3. Wallace 4. Felipe Camargo 15. Bryan Garcia (C) 8. Pedro Rodrigues 13. Serginho 26. Matheus Galdino 10. Givigi G. 20. Luis Araujo 28. Romario	22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 8. Maycon 30. Victor Hugo 10. Gustavo Scarpa 92. Dudu 7. Hulk (C)
Substitutes
2. Denzel 18. Eduardo Santos 1. Gabriel Bernard (G) 9. Gabriel Morbeck 22. Hulk 29. Luis Campero 16. Mateus 7. Nathan Zamith 25. Pedro Urso 6. Renan Gustavo 5. Renan Metz 21. Victor Ferreira	6. Alonso J. 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M. 39. Cisse M. 28. Cuello 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 37. Junior Santos 27. Minda A. 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 3. Roman I.
Coaches
Marcelo Caranhato	Goncalves L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
17', 0 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Natanael (A),
31', Pedro Rodrigues 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Hulk ⚽,
44', 0 - 3, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Franco A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 4)
46', Matheus Galdino ↓, Nathan Zamith ↑,
46', Givigi G. ↓, Victor Ferreira ↑,
46', Luis Araujo ↓, Hulk ↑,
52', 0 - 4, Hulk ⚽, Dudu (A),
54', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
54', Maycon ↓, Reinier ↑,
59', Serginho 🟨,
61', 0 - 5, Hulk (Penalty Awarded),
68', Hulk ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,
68', Franco A. ↓, Minda A. ↑,
68', Gleisinho ↓, Denzel ↑,
72', 0 - 6, Cassierra M. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Pedro Rodrigues ↓, Mateus ↑,
76', 0 - 7, Lodi R. ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
77', Lodi R. ↓, Bernard ↑,
78', 1 - 7, Romario ⚽, Nathan Zamith (A),
82', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
87', 2 - 7, Mateus ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Itabirito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético MG is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itabirito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Itabirito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabirito FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
06.02.26	Betim - Itabirito	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Itabirito - Tombense	2:3 ✺
24.01.26	URT - Itabirito	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Uberlândia - Itabirito	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Itabirito - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WLLWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Remo	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
31.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
12.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Itabirito	3:0
17.02.24	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	0:2

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