Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)


	Brusque		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.01	2.75	2.12
	3.47	2.6	2.51	Watch
	3.8	2.5	2.15
	3.84	2.82	2.15
	4	2.75	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (4.07)	2.68 ↓ (3.12)	2.2 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
24%

Draw
34.2%

Chapecoense
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

29.2%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

29.1%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapecoense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapecoense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brusque - Chapecoense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Brusque (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brusque (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 3. Alisson Cassiano 5. Bernardo 8. Biel Fonseca (C) 11. Clinton 7. Gazao 20. Joao Prado 2. Leonardo Ataide 21. Luizao 4. Rafael Milhorim 6. Raimar	12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 7. Marcinho 2. Marcos Vinicius 25. Victor Caetano
Substitutes
15. Alex Paulino 9. Alvaro 22. Italo Lucas 16. Joao Felix 18. Joao Pedro 10. Joao Pedro 24. Leonardo 17. Lucas de Sa 12. Paulo Gianezini (G) 19. Petterson Novaes 14. Ryan Santos 13. Salas M.	91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 23. Gustavo Talles 22. Higor Meritao 40. Joao Bom 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 99. Rafael Carvalheira 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 17. Vinicius Balieiro 35. Vinicius Eduardo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+4', 1 - 0, Joao Prado ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Leonardo Ataide ↓, Italo Lucas ↑,
58', Luizao ↓, Alvaro ↑,
64', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
71', Clinton ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
71', Joao Prado ↓, Ryan Santos ↑,
72', Jean Carlos ↓, Rafael Carvalheira ↑,
72', Victor Caetano ↓, Kauan ↑,
85', Joao Vitor ↓, Mailson ↑,
85', Italo ↓, David Antunes ↑,
90', Bernardo ↓, Alex Paulino ↑,
90+1', Rafael Milhorim 🟨,
90+7', Biel Fonseca 🟨,
90+7', Rafael Carvalheira 🟨,
90+7', Raimar 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 0.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Brusque may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chapecoense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brusque won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.7:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 48.42%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.02.26	Brusque - Concórdia	2:1 penalties ✺
01.02.26	Concórdia - Brusque	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Criciúma - Brusque	3:3 ✺
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Brusque	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTTTW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.01.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.10.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:1
17.09.25	Chapecoense - Brusque	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	0:1 penalties
22.01.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
29.10.24	Brusque - Chapecoense	0:1
14.07.24	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1

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