Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 12

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)


	Ituano		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.33	1.36	Watch
	8.5	4.4	1.39
	9	4.5	1.36	Watch
	9.47	4.57	1.37
	9.47	4.57	1.38
	8.5	4.2	1.33
	8.45	4.45	1.36
	8.2	4.2	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.76 ↑ (6.9)	4.4 ↑ (4.04)	1.36 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
10.6%

Draw
21.1%

São Paulo
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

23.1%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

22.4%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Ituano - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (C) 3. Leo Oliveira 4. Marcel Scalese 5. Vitao 2. Leo Duarte 8. Miqueias 9. Thonny Anderson 7. Vinicius Paiva 10. Eduardo Person 6. Marlinho 11. Ze Carlos	23. Rafael (G) 2. Igor Vinicius 3. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 6. Welington 25. Alisson 21. Bobadilla D. 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 47. Ferreirinha 9. Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
13. Aluisio 21. Bruno Alves 20. Jean Pyerre 15. Joao Vialle 16. Jonathan Vieira 18. Jose Aldo 22. Matheus Maia 17. Pablo 23. Richard 19. Salatiel 1. Saulo (G) 14. Vinicius Poz	37. Carmo H. 4. Diego Costa 33. Erick 14. Giuliano Galoppo 93. Jandrei (G) 30. Joao Moreira 31. Juan Santos 15. Michel Araujo 36. Patryck 13. Rafinha 55. Rodriguez J. 39. William Gomes
Coaches
Valentim A.	Thiago Carpini

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 0.

Ituano is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches São Paulo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Paulo is certain favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.24	Internacional de Limeira - Ituano	2:0 ✺
24.02.24	Ituano - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.02.24	São Luiz - Ituano	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.02.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:1 ✺
14.02.24	Ituano - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLTT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
28.02.24	Internacional de Limeira - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
25.02.24	Guarani - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2 ✺
14.02.24	São Paulo - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
25.04.23	Ituano - São Paulo	0:1
11.04.23	São Paulo - Ituano	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.01.23	São Paulo - Ituano	0:0
30.01.22	São Paulo - Ituano	0:0
25.04.21	Ituano - São Paulo	0:3
27.03.19	Ituano - São Paulo	0:1
24.03.19	São Paulo - Ituano	2:1

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