Match Info

BRAZIL: Pernambucano - Round 7

Date: 7 February 2025, Friday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Jaguar		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	7.5	3.7	1.41
	7.2	3.7	1.43
	10.5	3.44	1.46
	7.76	3.52	1.48
	6	3.75	1.48
	7.08	4.1	1.4
	7.2	3.7	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.61 ↑ (6.23)	3.7 ↓ (4.28)	1.44 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaguar
12%

Draw
24.7%

Santa Cruz Recife
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.5%

21.1%

64.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

20.9%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaguar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaguar than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Jaguar - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Everton (G) 10. Daniel 6. Eduardo Brito 8. Guilherme 9. Halef Pitbull 17. Jadiel 5. Joao A. S. 4. Klefferson 7. Pedro Maycon 3. Tallys 11. Thalison	1. Rokenedy (G) 11. Israel 7. Joao Pedro 5. Lucas Siqueira 13. Matheus Vinicius 6. Rodrigues 17. Thiaguinho 2. Toty 20. Vini Moura 8. Wagner Balotelli 4. William Alves (C)
Substitutes
16. Adriel 13. Alisson 23. Cordouro de Vasconcelos A. 25. Davi Monteiro 18. Deyvson 15. Jailton 14. Joao Rocha 21. Leo Mago 19. Luciano Grafite 12. Marcao (G) 2. Marcelo Amaral 24. Miguel (G) 22. Rafael Peixoto 20. Tabika	19. da Hora V. 16. Douglas Skilo 9. Everton Felipe 18. Henrique Lordelo 21. Jhonatan Ribeiro 10. Matheus Melo 3. Michel Bennech 22. Pedro Maia 23. Rafinha 28. Richardson 14. Ruan Robert 12. Thiago Henrique (G) 15. Vinicius Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Thiaguinho ⚽,
12', 0 - 2, Joao Pedro ⚽,
16', 0 - 3, Lucas Siqueira ⚽,
25', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
40', Klefferson ↓, Alisson ↑,
40', Brendon ↓, Leo Mago ↑,
43', Tallys 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wagner Balotelli ↓, Henrique Lordelo ↑,
46', Matheus Vinicius ↓, Michel Bennech ↑,
46', Vini Moura ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
56', Joao A. S. 🟨,
60', Daniel ↓, Deyvson ↑,
63', Thiaguinho ↓, Matheus Melo ↑,
90+3', Tallys 🟥,
90+4', 0 - 4, Matheus Melo ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Relegation ~ Pernambucano and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Jaguar is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Santa Cruz is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Santa Cruz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Jaguar have a series of guest games.

Recently Santa Cruz have a series of home games.

In this match Santa Cruz is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Jaguar
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
29.01.25	Sport Recife - Jaguar	4:1 ✺
25.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
22.01.25	Jaguar - Decisão	2:1 ✺
15.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Jaguar	3:2 ✺
11.01.25	Central SC - Jaguar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LTWLT
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.02.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
28.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
19.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0 ✺
16.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Petrolina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWLWW

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