Match Info

BRAZIL: Pernambucano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Santa Cruz Recife		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.7	2.25
	4.2	2.8	2.07
	3.73	2.47	2.42
	4.27	2.95	1.94
	3.2	2.9	2.35
	3.53	3.34	2.01
	4.2	2.8	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.7)	2.85 ↓ (3.3)	2.16 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
24.6%

Draw
32.5%

Sport Recife
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

28%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

26.9%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rokenedy (G) 19. Eduardo Tanque 2. Israel 7. Joao Pedro 5. Lucas Siqueira 13. Matheus Vinicius 23. Rafinha 17. Thiaguinho 6. Vinicius Silva 8. Wagner Balotelli 4. William Alves (C)	22. Caique Franca (G) 17. Carlos Alberto 44. Chico 32. Hereda 16. Igor Carius 77. Lobato L. 10. Lucas Lima (C) 27. Oliveira S. 7. Paciencia G. 14. Rivera C. 6. Silva J.
Substitutes
12. Deivity (G) 16. Douglas Skilo 29. Everton Felipe 15. Henrique Lordelo 28. Hiago 3. Italo Melo 11. Jhonatan Ribeiro 18. Lucas Bessa 14. Michel Bennech 22. Pedro Maia 25. Richardson 27. Rodrigues 9. Thiago Galhardo 21. Vini Hora 20. Vini Moura	25. Antonio Carlos 41. Davi (G) 8. Dominguez F. 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 11. Gustavo Maia 19. Hyoran 3. Lucas Cunha 43. Marcelo Ajul 33. Matheus Alexandre 92. Pablo 13. Renzo 91. Romarinho 12. Thiago Couto (G)
Coaches
Schulle I.	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vinicius Silva ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
46', Eduardo Tanque ↓, Thiago Galhardo ↑,
55', 🟨,
58', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
59', Rivera C. 🟨,
66', Lucas Lima ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
66', Carlos Alberto ↓, Gustavo Maia ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Dominguez F. ⚽,
71', Joao Pedro ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
74', Matheus Vinicius 🟨,
80', Lucas Siqueira ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
80', Paciencia G. ↓, Pablo ↑,
80', Lobato L. ↓, Romarinho ↑,
86', Rivera C. ↓, Hyoran ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Cruz won 1.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Recife could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recife will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Santa Cruz won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 18:29 (average 0.9:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Cruz won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:7 (average 0.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.25	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Maguary - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	2:1 ✺
07.02.25	Jaguar - Santa Cruz Recife	0:4 ✺
01.02.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTWWW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.25	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.03.25	Sport Recife - Decisão	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Operário Ltda - Sport Recife	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.02.25	Petrolina - Sport Recife	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.25	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0
01.02.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife	1:0
16.03.24	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 penalties
09.03.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife	1:1
20.01.24	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.03.23	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
11.03.23	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0

Upcoming Matches