Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jaraguay (Monteria)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, Fubo Latino 2, Fubo Latino


	Jaguares de Córdoba		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	2.60	2.88	3.00	Watch
	2.40	3.00	2.85
	2.33	3.15	3.15	Watch
	2.67	3.07	3.00
	2.39	3.03	3.17	Watch
	2.60	3.00	2.90
	2.66	2.94	3.07	Watch
	2.46	3.00	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.28)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	3.01 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaguares de Córdoba
37.4%

Draw
31.3%

Alianza Valledupar
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

30.3%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.7%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaguares de Córdoba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaguares de Córdoba than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Jaguares de Córdoba will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez D. (G) 18. Jimenez L. 3. Malagon J. 29. Henao C. 14. Martinez E. 5. Colpa Bolano R. R. 21. Bustamante R. 24. Cubides S. 16. Beltran J. 9. Mejia J. 11. Renteria A. (C)	40. Beltran E. (G) 3. Moreno K. 22. Figueroa J. (C) 32. Viveros J. 23. Alba I. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 7. Castillo J. 33. Lasso J. 10. Quinones D. 18. Vergara C. 8. Munoz J.
Substitutes
2. Alfonso A. 19. Cantillo C. 7. De La Rosa W. 27. Gracia F. 10. Jopito 17. Lopez D. 12. Mosquera F. (G) 8. Rodriguez Urango D. 28. Zuluaga D.	55. Fernandez W. 21. Nieto S. 88. Palacios L. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 2. Quinones S. 13. Simancas A. (G) 14. Villegas C.
Coaches
Bodhert H.	Torres F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Renteria A. ⚽, Beltran J. (A),
31', Beltran J. 🟨,
36', Jimenez L. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Castillo J. ⚽, Lasso J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Cubides S. 🟨,
49', Moreno K. 🟨,
56', Cubides S. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
63', Mejia J. ↓, Rodriguez Urango D. ↑,
63', Beltran J. ↓, Jopito ↑,
64', Moreno K. ↓, Quinones S. ↑,
65', Meza Mercado E. W. ↓, Fernandez W. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Lasso J. ⚽, Fernandez W. (A),
80', Munoz J. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
80', Quinones D. ↓, Villegas C. ↑,
80', Malagon J. ↓, De La Rosa W. ↑,
80', Jimenez L. ↓, Alfonso A. ↑,
81', Quinones S. 🟨,
90+3', Vergara C. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
90+7', Alfonso A. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 20th and 19th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaguares de Córdoba won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Alianza could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Jaguares de Córdoba holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares de Córdoba has recorded 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:24 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jaguares de Córdoba against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 8:5 goals (averaging 0.9:0.6 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14:26	-12	12
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	11	1	4	6	11:20	-9	7

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Valledupar - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.47%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaguares de Córdoba
Colombian Primera A
22.09.26	Independiente Medellín - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Junior Barranquilla - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:3 ✺
29.08.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - América de Cali	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Boyacá Chicó	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LTTTW
- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
19.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	1:4 ✺
15.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.09.26	América de Cali - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
19.03.26	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:0
10.11.24	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
20.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1
22.09.23	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
14.04.23	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:0
30.07.22	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	2:1
Colombian Copa
06.04.22	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	2:1

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