Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Jerez		Jaraíz

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.05	2.4
	2.75	3.51	2.29
	1.52	3.60	6.90	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.25
	2.74	3.38	2.27
	2.71	3.4	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)	3.37 ↑ (3.25)	3.07 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerez
38.8%

Draw
29.2%

Jaraíz
32%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.7%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.1%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Jaraíz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jerez than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaraíz than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Jerez - Jaraíz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Chavez Chema (Penalty Awarded),
13', 1 - 1, Ramos Moreno A. (Penalty Awarded),
26', 2 - 1, Diarrassouba B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
84', 2 - 2, Ramos Moreno A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: )).

Jerez is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Jaraíz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jerez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Jerez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Jerez CF	8	3	2	3	10:12	-2	11
13	Jaraiz	8	2	2	4	12:12	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Jaraíz - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jerez CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
18.01.26	Diocesano - Jerez	1:5 ✺
11.01.26	Montehermoso - Jerez	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Jerez - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Jerez - Villanovense	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Don Benito - Jerez	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WTTWT
- CF Jaraíz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
18.01.26	Jaraíz - Montehermoso	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Jaraíz - Villanovense	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Cabeza del Buey - Jaraíz	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Jaraíz - Llerenense	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Badajoz - Jaraíz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
02.02.25	Jerez - Jaraíz	2:3
22.09.24	Jaraíz - Jerez	2:1
24.03.24	Jaraíz - Jerez	2:0
05.11.23	Jerez - Jaraíz	3:1

Jerez - Jaraíz