Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Nilsen O. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Finland	Discovery+


	Jerv		Viking Stavanger

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.2	1.7	Watch
	4.6	4	1.65
	4.35	4.4	1.67
	4.2	4	1.69
	4.38	4.49	1.72
	4.2	3.75	1.67
	4.4	4.25	1.67
	4.3	4	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↓ (7.07)	4.14 ↓ (4.93)	1.68 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
21.5%

Draw
22.7%

Viking Stavanger
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.1%

18.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.7%

18.2%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jerv's performance.

Viking Stavanger has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Viking Stavanger might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jerv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Viking Stavanger than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Viking Stavanger could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Jerv - Viking Stavanger Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Jerv will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Viking will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Viking: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 9).

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (81.06%), has project points - 20, has currently - 17, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Viking has the most likely position - 10 (21.93%), has project points - 38, has currently - 33, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has small quality 20, very small importance 2, small match rating 11. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jerv won 2.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Jerv could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Viking have a series of home games.

In this match Viking is a favorite.

There will not play in Viking: Auklend S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Viking: Hagen V. (Injury) Pattynama S. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Jerv won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Jerv won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
19.10.22	Jerv - Aalesunds	0:1 ✺
16.10.22	Sandefjord - Jerv	1:2 ✺
02.10.22	Hamarkameratene - Jerv	2:1 ✺
18.09.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Jerv	4:3 ✺
11.09.22	Jerv - Molde	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLLL
- Viking Stavanger FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.10.22	Viking Stavanger - Sarpsborg 08	0:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
12.10.22	Viking Stavanger - Kristiansund	1:0 ET ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
09.10.22	Viking Stavanger - Lillestrøm SK	0:3 ✺
02.10.22	Aalesunds - Viking Stavanger	2:1 ✺
18.09.22	Viking Stavanger - Tromsø	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.22	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	3:0
Club Friendly
16.02.20	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	3:2
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
22.07.18	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	4:1
27.05.18	Jerv - Viking Stavanger	3:2
Club Friendly
27.03.18	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	2:6
17.02.17	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	2:0

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