Match Info

Date: 18 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsborg)

Referee: Moen C. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Discovery+


	Sarpsborg 08		Jerv

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	12	Watch
	1.23	6.5	10.5
	1.27	6.5	9	Watch
	1.22	6.4	9.8
	1.25	6.99	10.29
	1.2	5.8	11
	1.22	6.7	10.75	Watch
	1.22	6.4	9.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.3)	6.47 ↑ (5.29)	10.39 ↑ (8.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 08
76.4%

Draw
14.5%

Jerv
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

17.5%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.2%

17%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarpsborg 08's performance.

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Sarpsborg 08 - Jerv Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sarpsborg will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Jerv will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarpsborg: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen).

Sarpsborg has the most likely position - 11 (18.1%), has project points - 36, has currently - 25, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (84.65%), has project points - 20, has currently - 14, has a very good chance of relegated (99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has small quality 19, small importance 10, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Sarpsborg is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jerv is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Sarpsborg is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Mogensen G. (Injury)

There will not play in Jerv: Ness T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Opseth K. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sarpsborg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
11.09.22	Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08	1:3 ✺
04.09.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Hamarkameratene	2:1 ✺
28.08.22	Molde - Sarpsborg 08	4:1 ✺
20.08.22	Odd - Sarpsborg 08	1:0 ✺
12.08.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Bodø Glimt	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLL
- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
11.09.22	Jerv - Molde	2:4 ✺
04.09.22	Odd - Jerv	2:1 ✺
27.08.22	Jerv - Bodø Glimt	0:2 ✺
21.08.22	Strømsgodset - Jerv	6:0 ✺
14.08.22	Jerv - Lillestrøm SK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
29.05.22	Jerv - Sarpsborg 08	0:5

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